1 00:00:16,170 --> 00:00:18,930 - [Announcer] Defense News is proudly sponsored 2 00:00:18,930 --> 00:00:21,360 by Navy Federal Credit Union. 3 00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:23,910 If you're a member of our nation's Armed Forces, 4 00:00:23,910 --> 00:00:27,120 the Department of Defense, or if your family is, 5 00:00:27,120 --> 00:00:30,150 we'd be proud to serve you too. 6 00:00:30,150 --> 00:00:32,700 - [Chip] On this episode of "Defense News Weekly," 7 00:00:32,700 --> 00:00:36,360 new analysis on the ramifications of the war in Iran. 8 00:00:36,360 --> 00:00:38,490 The topic this week, China. 9 00:00:38,490 --> 00:00:41,250 As the world's emergent global superpower, 10 00:00:41,250 --> 00:00:43,380 what lessons is China taking away 11 00:00:43,380 --> 00:00:46,470 from the US military action in the Middle East? 12 00:00:46,470 --> 00:00:49,590 We hear from an expert on China about the defense, 13 00:00:49,590 --> 00:00:52,980 economic and intelligence implications of the war 14 00:00:52,980 --> 00:00:55,140 for a major American rival. 15 00:00:55,140 --> 00:00:56,970 Join us for the latest in news 16 00:00:56,970 --> 00:00:58,830 and analysis from the Pentagon 17 00:00:58,830 --> 00:01:02,097 to the platoon here on "Defense News Weekly." 18 00:01:03,211 --> 00:01:05,878 (intense music) 19 00:01:22,440 --> 00:01:24,660 Welcome back to "Defense News Weekly." 20 00:01:24,660 --> 00:01:28,200 One little talked about aspect of the war in Iran pertains 21 00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:32,160 to its implications for a chief American rival, China. 22 00:01:32,160 --> 00:01:33,390 What are the takeaways 23 00:01:33,390 --> 00:01:37,110 for one of the US' major competitors on the global stage? 24 00:01:37,110 --> 00:01:39,510 To find out, we sat down with an expert 25 00:01:39,510 --> 00:01:42,630 on Chinese affairs from the Stimson Institute. 26 00:01:42,630 --> 00:01:45,270 Here's some of what she had to say. 27 00:01:45,270 --> 00:01:48,000 - Welcome back to "Defense News Weekly," I'm Ben Murray. 28 00:01:48,000 --> 00:01:50,880 With the Iran war dominating headlines on a daily basis, 29 00:01:50,880 --> 00:01:52,710 there's one topic getting little attention 30 00:01:52,710 --> 00:01:55,770 as all eyes look to the Middle East, China. 31 00:01:55,770 --> 00:01:57,300 What is the influential nation up to 32 00:01:57,300 --> 00:01:59,310 as the conflict drags on? 33 00:01:59,310 --> 00:02:02,160 To talk about it, I'm joined today by Dr. Yun Sun, 34 00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:04,350 an expert on China from the Stimson Center here 35 00:02:04,350 --> 00:02:05,553 in Washington, DC. 36 00:02:06,870 --> 00:02:08,520 Dr. Sun, thanks so much for joining us. 37 00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:10,230 - Thank you for having me. - So just wanted 38 00:02:10,230 --> 00:02:11,250 to start right off the top, 39 00:02:11,250 --> 00:02:14,220 as someone who is an expert in Chinese affairs 40 00:02:14,220 --> 00:02:18,360 and studies the region, when you first saw the news 41 00:02:18,360 --> 00:02:20,700 that the US and Israel were attacking Iran, 42 00:02:20,700 --> 00:02:22,500 what was your initial reaction 43 00:02:22,500 --> 00:02:23,790 to what the response would be? 44 00:02:23,790 --> 00:02:27,090 - The initial reaction was, "Oh God, what is gonna happen 45 00:02:27,090 --> 00:02:29,580 to President Trump's visit to China?" 46 00:02:29,580 --> 00:02:31,890 Which at that point was scheduled 47 00:02:31,890 --> 00:02:34,860 to happen towards the end of March. 48 00:02:34,860 --> 00:02:36,300 And the original assumption was, 49 00:02:36,300 --> 00:02:39,060 well, maybe this war will be over very quickly. 50 00:02:39,060 --> 00:02:41,150 But as it dragged on, 51 00:02:41,150 --> 00:02:44,070 I think the question became more and more pressing 52 00:02:44,070 --> 00:02:46,470 as for whether the trip to China was still happening. 53 00:02:46,470 --> 00:02:48,090 Later, it turned out that they postponed it 54 00:02:48,090 --> 00:02:51,000 for about six weeks to mid May. 55 00:02:51,000 --> 00:02:52,110 - And why is that so important? 56 00:02:52,110 --> 00:02:55,530 Why was that, like, such a reaction 57 00:02:55,530 --> 00:02:58,150 for a big global event and a war 58 00:02:58,150 --> 00:03:01,500 that a visit like that would be the ramification? 59 00:03:01,500 --> 00:03:04,170 - Yeah, because for watchers of US-China relations 60 00:03:04,170 --> 00:03:07,410 and the evolution of US policy towards China, 61 00:03:07,410 --> 00:03:09,570 especially under the Trump administration, 62 00:03:09,570 --> 00:03:12,090 this visit by President Trump to Beijing 63 00:03:12,090 --> 00:03:14,370 is like the event of the year. 64 00:03:14,370 --> 00:03:16,500 It has been planned for a while. 65 00:03:16,500 --> 00:03:18,330 Everyone is expecting 66 00:03:18,330 --> 00:03:21,150 or speculating what would come out of the trip. 67 00:03:21,150 --> 00:03:22,980 But first off, there needs to be a trip 68 00:03:22,980 --> 00:03:27,240 for the two president to meet and to discuss. 69 00:03:27,240 --> 00:03:29,520 So the postponement of this trip 70 00:03:29,520 --> 00:03:33,630 is significant for the evolution, for the development 71 00:03:33,630 --> 00:03:35,580 of US-China relations this year. 72 00:03:35,580 --> 00:03:37,320 - And that's for trade primarily, 73 00:03:37,320 --> 00:03:38,783 what was on the table for that? 74 00:03:38,783 --> 00:03:41,130 - I think first off, there is a trade, 75 00:03:41,130 --> 00:03:44,550 because the trade deal 76 00:03:44,550 --> 00:03:46,500 that President Trump had been talking about 77 00:03:46,500 --> 00:03:50,160 since the inauguration of his second term 78 00:03:50,160 --> 00:03:53,640 has been the top priority coming to China 79 00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:56,040 and what was reached after several rounds 80 00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:59,070 of escalation, deescalation last year 81 00:03:59,070 --> 00:04:02,940 is a revolution that there has been small deals, 82 00:04:02,940 --> 00:04:06,120 but the trade deal has not happened. 83 00:04:06,120 --> 00:04:08,640 So there are a lot of speculations 84 00:04:08,640 --> 00:04:10,950 that this trip will produce that. 85 00:04:10,950 --> 00:04:14,550 - Gotcha, where defense show or military show, 86 00:04:14,550 --> 00:04:15,840 so something I've been wondering, 87 00:04:15,840 --> 00:04:17,760 just we're all looking at the Middle East 88 00:04:17,760 --> 00:04:21,720 and previously, and all the conversation was entirely among, 89 00:04:21,720 --> 00:04:25,620 you know, like military folks and defense folks here. 90 00:04:25,620 --> 00:04:27,330 What are we doing in INDOPACOM? 91 00:04:27,330 --> 00:04:29,610 What is going on in, how are we building up INDOPACOM? 92 00:04:29,610 --> 00:04:30,930 And now we're all looking to the other side. 93 00:04:30,930 --> 00:04:33,330 And I've been wondering what is your assessment 94 00:04:33,330 --> 00:04:35,460 of what is China is picking up, 95 00:04:35,460 --> 00:04:37,050 what is it learning as it watches 96 00:04:37,050 --> 00:04:38,820 what we're doing in the Middle East? 97 00:04:38,820 --> 00:04:40,287 - There are several different lessons, I think, 98 00:04:40,287 --> 00:04:43,050 the Chinese are currently observing. 99 00:04:43,050 --> 00:04:45,660 The first one is the case of Iran, 100 00:04:45,660 --> 00:04:49,560 just like the case of US Special Force going to Venezuela 101 00:04:49,560 --> 00:04:53,310 to capture Maduro has demonstrated that US military 102 00:04:53,310 --> 00:04:56,370 is extremely professional, extremely capable 103 00:04:56,370 --> 00:04:59,973 when there is a well-defined tactical target, 104 00:05:00,900 --> 00:05:03,120 just like as in what the Chinese have been observing 105 00:05:03,120 --> 00:05:06,900 the rescue of our airmen from Iran. 106 00:05:06,900 --> 00:05:10,080 Just look at the execution, look at the planning, 107 00:05:10,080 --> 00:05:13,440 look at how professional the US military force was able 108 00:05:13,440 --> 00:05:17,280 to carry out the mission to its complete success. 109 00:05:17,280 --> 00:05:20,820 I think that shows the Chinese that on the tactical level, 110 00:05:20,820 --> 00:05:23,280 US military is extremely capable. 111 00:05:23,280 --> 00:05:24,870 But I think on the other hand, 112 00:05:24,870 --> 00:05:26,220 the question on the Chinese side 113 00:05:26,220 --> 00:05:28,590 is primarily on the strategy side, 114 00:05:28,590 --> 00:05:32,730 that what was the strategic anticipation 115 00:05:32,730 --> 00:05:35,850 going into this war with Iran? 116 00:05:35,850 --> 00:05:39,000 What was the planning for the next steps? 117 00:05:39,000 --> 00:05:40,170 What was the planning 118 00:05:40,170 --> 00:05:42,720 or preparation for different scenarios? 119 00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:45,510 Those seems to be a little lacking. 120 00:05:45,510 --> 00:05:48,420 And I think for China, there's a lot of takeaways on that, 121 00:05:48,420 --> 00:05:51,210 that if US engages to China, say, 122 00:05:51,210 --> 00:05:54,420 in a potential Taiwan contingency, 123 00:05:54,420 --> 00:05:57,660 would China be in a better position? 124 00:05:57,660 --> 00:06:00,840 Because China will have already gamed out all the scenarios 125 00:06:00,840 --> 00:06:04,500 and US apparently has not. 126 00:06:04,500 --> 00:06:06,510 So I think that's one thing 127 00:06:06,510 --> 00:06:09,750 that's hovering Chinese policymaker's mind. 128 00:06:09,750 --> 00:06:12,240 And then beyond that, I think for the Chinese, 129 00:06:12,240 --> 00:06:15,600 they're also observing how this war is being fought. 130 00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:19,380 What strategies or what tactics have been effective 131 00:06:19,380 --> 00:06:21,570 from the Iranian side 132 00:06:21,570 --> 00:06:25,650 and what strategies have been effective on the US side, 133 00:06:25,650 --> 00:06:28,650 and use these observations to gauge 134 00:06:28,650 --> 00:06:31,950 how a potential military conflict would evolve 135 00:06:31,950 --> 00:06:33,720 if there's one between US and China. 136 00:06:33,720 --> 00:06:36,170 - Yeah, I was wondering if there is some value 137 00:06:36,170 --> 00:06:38,400 in just watching and seeing 138 00:06:38,400 --> 00:06:43,170 how the US military approached a large, well-armed country, 139 00:06:43,170 --> 00:06:46,380 you know, as a means to stage an attack 140 00:06:46,380 --> 00:06:48,090 and just watched and learned from that. 141 00:06:48,090 --> 00:06:49,710 Do you think that is a bit of something 142 00:06:49,710 --> 00:06:51,990 they can just pull something out of? 143 00:06:51,990 --> 00:06:54,360 - Oh, absolutely, because Ukraine war 144 00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:56,940 doesn't really offer China that perspective, right? 145 00:06:56,940 --> 00:06:59,340 US is not directly involved, 146 00:06:59,340 --> 00:07:01,680 and looking at the small operations, 147 00:07:01,680 --> 00:07:03,930 like the one in Venezuela, 148 00:07:03,930 --> 00:07:06,450 it doesn't offer much reference either. 149 00:07:06,450 --> 00:07:10,980 So this is a one single case for China 150 00:07:10,980 --> 00:07:13,680 to study how US fights a war 151 00:07:13,680 --> 00:07:15,840 with essentially a regional power, 152 00:07:15,840 --> 00:07:19,950 a weakened regional power, but still a regional power 153 00:07:19,950 --> 00:07:24,300 with significant military might after all. 154 00:07:24,300 --> 00:07:26,220 So there are a lot of differences between Iran 155 00:07:26,220 --> 00:07:28,680 and China of course, but looking at how the war 156 00:07:28,680 --> 00:07:31,260 is being fought and what are the doctrines 157 00:07:31,260 --> 00:07:33,390 that US military follows, since there are a lot 158 00:07:33,390 --> 00:07:35,550 of things that Chinese are learning. 159 00:07:35,550 --> 00:07:36,630 - [Chip] When we come back, 160 00:07:36,630 --> 00:07:39,720 more from our conversation with an expert on China 161 00:07:39,720 --> 00:07:42,893 and the impact of the Iran war, stay tuned. 162 00:07:43,792 --> 00:07:46,459 (intense music) 163 00:08:50,118 --> 00:08:52,785 (intense music) 164 00:08:57,180 --> 00:08:59,520 Welcome back to "Defense News Weekly." 165 00:08:59,520 --> 00:09:01,200 The ripple effects of the US 166 00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:04,440 and Israel's war in Iran have spread across the globe 167 00:09:04,440 --> 00:09:08,460 in recent weeks, one country watching closely, China, 168 00:09:08,460 --> 00:09:11,490 for deeper understanding of how the major US rival 169 00:09:11,490 --> 00:09:14,190 is looking to leverage the conflict in their favor, 170 00:09:14,190 --> 00:09:16,650 we turn to an expert on the country. 171 00:09:16,650 --> 00:09:19,140 Here's some of the conversation. 172 00:09:19,140 --> 00:09:21,210 - Former Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, 173 00:09:21,210 --> 00:09:22,980 he had an opinion piece out this morning 174 00:09:22,980 --> 00:09:24,570 in the New York Times where he said 175 00:09:24,570 --> 00:09:27,780 the US had to be better prepared to respond 176 00:09:27,780 --> 00:09:30,120 to economic weapons essentially, 177 00:09:30,120 --> 00:09:32,550 like we're seeing with the Strait of Hormuz, 178 00:09:32,550 --> 00:09:36,120 and sort of global insecurity being triggered by a rival 179 00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:38,130 or someone we're fighting with. 180 00:09:38,130 --> 00:09:39,720 And he cautioned specifically 181 00:09:39,720 --> 00:09:44,720 that China had way more potential to cause economic harm 182 00:09:44,760 --> 00:09:47,340 around the globe in any sort of armed conflict. 183 00:09:47,340 --> 00:09:48,960 Is that anything you can elaborate on? 184 00:09:48,960 --> 00:09:50,430 He didn't go into any specifics. 185 00:09:50,430 --> 00:09:51,540 - Well, China has developed 186 00:09:51,540 --> 00:09:55,080 a pretty comprehensive economic coercive tools 187 00:09:55,080 --> 00:09:57,780 throughout the years, whether it's the critical minerals, 188 00:09:57,780 --> 00:09:59,880 the supply chain vulnerability, the choke point 189 00:09:59,880 --> 00:10:04,260 that we suffer, or even it's just small things 190 00:10:04,260 --> 00:10:07,620 as simple as chemicals we use to make our medication. 191 00:10:07,620 --> 00:10:09,630 So throughout the years, I mean, 192 00:10:09,630 --> 00:10:12,690 because China has been the world factory 193 00:10:12,690 --> 00:10:14,940 that has developed the manufacturing capability 194 00:10:14,940 --> 00:10:16,470 to supply the whole world, 195 00:10:16,470 --> 00:10:19,830 so it does give us that vulnerability, right? 196 00:10:19,830 --> 00:10:23,100 The question is, how do we manage that vulnerability? 197 00:10:23,100 --> 00:10:24,210 Because there are a lot of things 198 00:10:24,210 --> 00:10:27,420 that the US can make domestically but not efficiently. 199 00:10:27,420 --> 00:10:28,950 And it's going to be more expensive. 200 00:10:28,950 --> 00:10:30,060 Let's say that during COVID, 201 00:10:30,060 --> 00:10:33,720 that China was producing all the world's medical supply, 202 00:10:33,720 --> 00:10:35,940 especially the medical masks. 203 00:10:35,940 --> 00:10:37,500 So can we produce that domestically? 204 00:10:37,500 --> 00:10:41,610 We can, can we produce it more cheaply than the Chinese can? 205 00:10:41,610 --> 00:10:42,930 No, we can't. 206 00:10:42,930 --> 00:10:45,810 So I would say it's a delicate balance. 207 00:10:45,810 --> 00:10:48,660 And we also remember, under the Biden administration, 208 00:10:48,660 --> 00:10:50,940 we developed a concept of friend-shoring. 209 00:10:50,940 --> 00:10:54,840 So there are friends and allies in the developing world 210 00:10:54,840 --> 00:10:58,170 in Global South that arguably can also make 211 00:10:58,170 --> 00:11:02,193 these rudimentary products as well as the Chinese do, 212 00:11:03,060 --> 00:11:04,650 but the thing, the challenge there is that 213 00:11:04,650 --> 00:11:06,900 what these countries do have to rely on China 214 00:11:06,900 --> 00:11:11,520 for the materials they use to build these products. 215 00:11:11,520 --> 00:11:13,470 So I think economic coercion is going 216 00:11:13,470 --> 00:11:17,610 to be a longer-term problem when we deal with China 217 00:11:17,610 --> 00:11:20,940 because they have developed those choke points. 218 00:11:20,940 --> 00:11:23,563 - Could you doomsday scenario it for me for a second? 219 00:11:23,563 --> 00:11:24,990 - Yeah. - If something, you know, 220 00:11:24,990 --> 00:11:26,190 happens in the Indo-Pacific 221 00:11:26,190 --> 00:11:29,340 and suddenly we are just in conflict with China, 222 00:11:29,340 --> 00:11:32,460 what are the, you know, we think gas prices going up is bad, 223 00:11:32,460 --> 00:11:34,200 but what are the things that you know of 224 00:11:34,200 --> 00:11:36,300 or could elucidate for us that China, 225 00:11:36,300 --> 00:11:37,440 what are the strings they could pull 226 00:11:37,440 --> 00:11:41,010 to really upset things either for us or global? 227 00:11:41,010 --> 00:11:43,980 - This is the most important takeaway from the war in Iran, 228 00:11:43,980 --> 00:11:48,300 that we used to believe we have critical choke point 229 00:11:48,300 --> 00:11:52,380 over the Chinese war fighting capability, 230 00:11:52,380 --> 00:11:56,100 that we have a choke point in Malacca Strait. 231 00:11:56,100 --> 00:11:59,400 We can potentially disrupt the Chinese shipment of oil 232 00:11:59,400 --> 00:12:02,250 and disrupt their trade through the Indian oceans, 233 00:12:02,250 --> 00:12:03,840 through the South China Sea. 234 00:12:03,840 --> 00:12:06,600 And what the Chinese have demonstrated in this war is that, 235 00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:11,340 well, they're far more resilient than we had ever imagined. 236 00:12:11,340 --> 00:12:12,930 So in the future scenario 237 00:12:12,930 --> 00:12:15,660 that we do have same Taiwan contingency 238 00:12:15,660 --> 00:12:18,300 and we decided to cut off the Chinese oil shipment 239 00:12:18,300 --> 00:12:22,050 from the Middle East, guess what, they can survive. 240 00:12:22,050 --> 00:12:25,800 And they are demonstrating it through the current, 241 00:12:25,800 --> 00:12:28,290 well, the crisis related to Iran. 242 00:12:28,290 --> 00:12:31,500 What the Chinese can do, I think on economic coercion, 243 00:12:31,500 --> 00:12:34,860 the Chinese will also try to cut off our supply. 244 00:12:34,860 --> 00:12:36,840 For example, critical minerals, 245 00:12:36,840 --> 00:12:39,330 which is essential for defense industries, 246 00:12:39,330 --> 00:12:41,820 for the development of our high-tech weapons, 247 00:12:41,820 --> 00:12:43,710 advanced weapon systems. 248 00:12:43,710 --> 00:12:46,770 In the event of war, I think it's extremely unlikely 249 00:12:46,770 --> 00:12:49,740 for China to continue to supply the United States 250 00:12:49,740 --> 00:12:51,930 these critical minerals that we will need. 251 00:12:51,930 --> 00:12:55,080 We are running basically as fast as we can 252 00:12:55,080 --> 00:12:58,803 to develop the alternative source, but that will take time. 253 00:12:59,730 --> 00:13:01,560 - Changing topics a little bit. 254 00:13:01,560 --> 00:13:03,600 Is China getting any disadvantage? 255 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:04,740 Obviously, they're learning a lot. 256 00:13:04,740 --> 00:13:06,810 They're seeing here what levers they could pull. 257 00:13:06,810 --> 00:13:10,500 They're seeing how we have acted with our military here, 258 00:13:10,500 --> 00:13:12,300 but are we getting a practice 259 00:13:12,300 --> 00:13:14,580 in sort of a Ukraine-styled real-world scenario 260 00:13:14,580 --> 00:13:17,610 that advances us further and gives us some advantage? 261 00:13:17,610 --> 00:13:20,490 Are there any disadvantages for China here that you can see? 262 00:13:20,490 --> 00:13:21,570 - Oh, totally. - You know, militarily, 263 00:13:21,570 --> 00:13:23,276 politically, globally. 264 00:13:23,276 --> 00:13:26,883 - I think the biggest disadvantage 265 00:13:26,883 --> 00:13:29,820 that the Chinese have realized through this war 266 00:13:29,820 --> 00:13:34,083 is that they used to believe that US is reluctant, 267 00:13:34,920 --> 00:13:38,280 that US would not make a light decision 268 00:13:38,280 --> 00:13:41,340 to go to war with a major regional power. 269 00:13:41,340 --> 00:13:44,040 And Iran, no matter how weak or weakened, 270 00:13:44,040 --> 00:13:45,870 it's still a regional power, 271 00:13:45,870 --> 00:13:48,600 but just the willingness of Washington 272 00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:52,050 to go into a war, not necessarily was a great plan 273 00:13:52,050 --> 00:13:54,540 for how to handle different scenarios 274 00:13:54,540 --> 00:13:57,120 like what we're looking at today, 275 00:13:57,120 --> 00:14:00,180 but just the willingness to use force, 276 00:14:00,180 --> 00:14:03,060 I think that's going to be a, 277 00:14:03,060 --> 00:14:07,920 or that has been a significant shocker for the Chinese. 278 00:14:07,920 --> 00:14:12,450 And I think after witnessing how US was reluctant to, 279 00:14:12,450 --> 00:14:14,760 say, draw the red line in Syria, 280 00:14:14,760 --> 00:14:18,180 to get involved in local conflicts, 281 00:14:18,180 --> 00:14:21,270 I think just as the easiness the US decided 282 00:14:21,270 --> 00:14:25,120 to go forward with this war on Iran 283 00:14:26,610 --> 00:14:28,890 is going to give China a lot of pause 284 00:14:28,890 --> 00:14:33,570 when they try to calculate or gauge or calibrate 285 00:14:33,570 --> 00:14:37,620 how US may respond to a Chinese transgression 286 00:14:37,620 --> 00:14:39,900 or a Chinese aggression towards Taiwan 287 00:14:39,900 --> 00:14:41,520 over the Taiwan Strait. 288 00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:46,020 I think they will have to assume that US is willing. 289 00:14:46,020 --> 00:14:48,783 - That goes right to my last question, which was, 290 00:14:49,860 --> 00:14:52,320 you know, having seen what we've seen here, 291 00:14:52,320 --> 00:14:54,810 does it change China's calculus 292 00:14:54,810 --> 00:14:58,023 on any offensive action towards Taiwan? 293 00:14:59,160 --> 00:15:00,870 And seeing, you know, there's a lot of talk, 294 00:15:00,870 --> 00:15:02,850 the Pentagon is very aggressive about saying 295 00:15:02,850 --> 00:15:04,230 there is no stockpile problem. 296 00:15:04,230 --> 00:15:06,623 We have a million of everything, they're rumbling in it. 297 00:15:07,650 --> 00:15:09,930 But having seen what they're seeing is, 298 00:15:09,930 --> 00:15:10,890 does it change our calculus 299 00:15:10,890 --> 00:15:13,890 on potentially getting more aggressive towards Taiwan 300 00:15:13,890 --> 00:15:17,253 now that the US is occupied elsewhere? 301 00:15:18,750 --> 00:15:20,100 - I think that is very true. 302 00:15:20,100 --> 00:15:22,290 I think if the Chinese identifies 303 00:15:22,290 --> 00:15:24,360 that currently US is preoccupied 304 00:15:24,360 --> 00:15:26,520 with several different friends, 305 00:15:26,520 --> 00:15:28,710 then it will be less constrained, 306 00:15:28,710 --> 00:15:31,080 where they will feel less constrained coming to Taiwan, 307 00:15:31,080 --> 00:15:34,170 not necessarily to launch a military attack against Taiwan, 308 00:15:34,170 --> 00:15:36,090 but they will be much more aggressive 309 00:15:36,090 --> 00:15:38,340 and bold in pushing the envelopes, right, 310 00:15:38,340 --> 00:15:40,620 to basically push Taiwan around, 311 00:15:40,620 --> 00:15:43,590 sometimes use their gray zone coercion activities 312 00:15:43,590 --> 00:15:46,350 to basically show the Taiwanese public opinion 313 00:15:46,350 --> 00:15:48,420 that we're able to push you around 314 00:15:48,420 --> 00:15:50,760 and US is not gonna come to your rescue. 315 00:15:50,760 --> 00:15:53,550 So I think all those are definitely true. 316 00:15:53,550 --> 00:15:56,610 And in my view, the Chinese strategies 317 00:15:56,610 --> 00:16:00,930 since the second Trump administration towards Taiwan 318 00:16:00,930 --> 00:16:04,410 is that whenever US does something to assist Taiwan, 319 00:16:04,410 --> 00:16:07,350 China will target Taiwan instead 320 00:16:07,350 --> 00:16:09,030 of pushing back against United States, 321 00:16:09,030 --> 00:16:09,930 because China still wants 322 00:16:09,930 --> 00:16:11,490 to maintain relatively good relationship 323 00:16:11,490 --> 00:16:13,230 with President Trump. 324 00:16:13,230 --> 00:16:15,870 But what we have seen is that China has not been shy 325 00:16:15,870 --> 00:16:17,760 in beating Taiwan on the head. 326 00:16:17,760 --> 00:16:19,983 Think about the arm sales last December, 327 00:16:19,983 --> 00:16:23,490 the $11 billion arm sales for Taiwan, 328 00:16:23,490 --> 00:16:26,640 which is unprecedented in terms of size. 329 00:16:26,640 --> 00:16:28,470 What did the Chinese do? 330 00:16:28,470 --> 00:16:29,796 The Chinese turned around 331 00:16:29,796 --> 00:16:33,060 and launched a major military exercise against Taiwan 332 00:16:33,060 --> 00:16:37,350 instead of pushing significantly back against Washington. 333 00:16:37,350 --> 00:16:41,070 So I think the Chinese have been feeling emboldened 334 00:16:41,070 --> 00:16:45,390 in a way in the case of Taiwan, 335 00:16:45,390 --> 00:16:47,250 but it's not necessarily translating 336 00:16:47,250 --> 00:16:50,400 to an immediate message that China will attack Taiwan. 337 00:16:50,400 --> 00:16:52,500 - I think so, are we saying, just wrapping that up, 338 00:16:52,500 --> 00:16:55,950 a bit of a bow, is it one possible outcome 339 00:16:55,950 --> 00:16:58,980 that we see a Middle East with a much greater influence 340 00:16:58,980 --> 00:17:00,870 from China on the region? 341 00:17:00,870 --> 00:17:02,160 Is that what we're saying? 342 00:17:02,160 --> 00:17:05,760 - Well, without a definitive ending of this war 343 00:17:05,760 --> 00:17:06,593 and what that looks like, 344 00:17:06,593 --> 00:17:09,963 I think it's going to be very hard to say that, 345 00:17:11,280 --> 00:17:13,230 because so far, what we have seen is that, 346 00:17:13,230 --> 00:17:15,030 well, despite all this narrative 347 00:17:15,030 --> 00:17:17,370 about China being a power in the Middle East, 348 00:17:17,370 --> 00:17:20,520 China has played a very minimal role in this conflict 349 00:17:20,520 --> 00:17:22,530 towards the ending of this conflict. 350 00:17:22,530 --> 00:17:25,830 So does China really have the critical influence 351 00:17:25,830 --> 00:17:27,663 in the region to be the power 352 00:17:27,663 --> 00:17:29,640 that a lot of people believe it is? 353 00:17:29,640 --> 00:17:31,830 And remember, China does not have military presence 354 00:17:31,830 --> 00:17:34,290 in the region, which we have challenged 355 00:17:34,290 --> 00:17:35,790 that why don't you have military presence, 356 00:17:35,790 --> 00:17:38,760 you have such critical oil interest to protect. 357 00:17:38,760 --> 00:17:41,070 Well, I think this conflict showed us why. 358 00:17:41,070 --> 00:17:43,560 So I could even make an argument 359 00:17:43,560 --> 00:17:45,900 that maybe this conflict signifies the fact 360 00:17:45,900 --> 00:17:48,750 that China will not be a military 361 00:17:48,750 --> 00:17:51,780 or security provider in the region but instead, 362 00:17:51,780 --> 00:17:54,300 will stay more on the economic cooperation, 363 00:17:54,300 --> 00:17:57,570 commercial transaction, energy cooperation side 364 00:17:57,570 --> 00:17:59,760 of the aisle. 365 00:17:59,760 --> 00:18:01,620 - Dr. Yun Sun from the Stimson Center, 366 00:18:01,620 --> 00:18:02,940 thanks so much for joining us today. 367 00:18:02,940 --> 00:18:04,890 - Thank you for having me, Ben. 368 00:18:04,890 --> 00:18:05,970 - [Chip] When we come back, 369 00:18:05,970 --> 00:18:08,430 our finance expert returns with tips 370 00:18:08,430 --> 00:18:10,350 on saving for your retirement. 371 00:18:10,350 --> 00:18:12,160 Don't go away. 372 00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:14,827 (intense music) 373 00:19:18,587 --> 00:19:21,254 (intense music) 374 00:19:25,680 --> 00:19:28,380 Welcome back, on this edition of "Money Minutes," 375 00:19:28,380 --> 00:19:31,440 Jeanette Mack from Navy Federal Credit Union walks you 376 00:19:31,440 --> 00:19:34,440 through important steps for saving for your retirement. 377 00:19:34,440 --> 00:19:36,150 Check it out. 378 00:19:36,150 --> 00:19:37,470 - When it comes to retirement, 379 00:19:37,470 --> 00:19:40,470 the best time to start saving is always now. 380 00:19:40,470 --> 00:19:41,670 Waiting for the perfect moment 381 00:19:41,670 --> 00:19:44,520 can end up costing you years of potential savings. 382 00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:46,020 Even if your budget feels tight, 383 00:19:46,020 --> 00:19:48,120 saving even the tiniest amount today 384 00:19:48,120 --> 00:19:49,740 can make a big difference tomorrow 385 00:19:49,740 --> 00:19:51,540 thanks to compounding interest. 386 00:19:51,540 --> 00:19:53,220 Your deposits, however small, 387 00:19:53,220 --> 00:19:55,560 have more power when they have time to grow. 388 00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:57,240 Start by picturing your future. 389 00:19:57,240 --> 00:19:59,940 Ask yourself, what do you want retirement to look like? 390 00:19:59,940 --> 00:20:02,820 Will you be downsizing, traveling, working part-time, 391 00:20:02,820 --> 00:20:04,650 or will every day be for relaxing? 392 00:20:04,650 --> 00:20:07,710 Your vision helps guide how much you'll need to save. 393 00:20:07,710 --> 00:20:09,660 Next, use what's available to you. 394 00:20:09,660 --> 00:20:12,840 If you have an employer supported retirement plan, use it. 395 00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:14,880 Those savings really add up over time, 396 00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:17,700 especially if your company offers an employer match up 397 00:20:17,700 --> 00:20:18,840 to a certain percentage. 398 00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:21,210 That's free money you shouldn't leave on the table. 399 00:20:21,210 --> 00:20:22,710 And if you're saving on your own, 400 00:20:22,710 --> 00:20:25,920 options like IRAs help your money grow with tax advantages. 401 00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:27,780 Just keep at the habit of saving. 402 00:20:27,780 --> 00:20:29,370 You don't have to be perfect. 403 00:20:29,370 --> 00:20:30,750 Start small, stick with it, 404 00:20:30,750 --> 00:20:33,060 and increase contributions when you get a raise, 405 00:20:33,060 --> 00:20:34,830 a bonus or pay off debt. 406 00:20:34,830 --> 00:20:37,440 It's the habit of saving, not the amount. 407 00:20:37,440 --> 00:20:39,963 Believe me, your future self will thank you. 408 00:20:40,851 --> 00:20:42,510 - [Chip] To get more coverage of military 409 00:20:42,510 --> 00:20:43,650 and defense topics, 410 00:20:43,650 --> 00:20:45,840 aim your personal surveillance satellite 411 00:20:45,840 --> 00:20:50,820 at militarytimes.com and defensenews.com for more headlines. 412 00:20:50,820 --> 00:20:53,850 And to be the most informed mortarman in the infantry, 413 00:20:53,850 --> 00:20:57,000 sign up for our early bird brief compiled each morning 414 00:20:57,000 --> 00:20:59,130 to bring you the most recent news. 415 00:20:59,130 --> 00:21:00,930 Finally, if social media 416 00:21:00,930 --> 00:21:03,240 is where you collect open source intelligence, 417 00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:07,140 follow us on YouTube, Facebook, Instagram and X. 418 00:21:07,140 --> 00:21:10,170 And for you Gen Z troops, we're on TikTok. 419 00:21:10,170 --> 00:21:12,660 So go follow us there as well. 420 00:21:12,660 --> 00:21:14,760 When we return, a special report 421 00:21:14,760 --> 00:21:17,970 on major veteran's legislation before Congress. 422 00:21:17,970 --> 00:21:18,943 Stay with us. 423 00:21:19,813 --> 00:21:22,480 (intense music) 424 00:22:26,173 --> 00:22:28,840 (intense music) 425 00:22:33,270 --> 00:22:35,580 Welcome back to "Defense News Weekly." 426 00:22:35,580 --> 00:22:38,880 The Major Richard Star Act is aimed at allowing veterans 427 00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:42,030 with combat-related injuries to receive more benefits 428 00:22:42,030 --> 00:22:44,010 than currently allowed under law. 429 00:22:44,010 --> 00:22:45,990 With the bills stalled in Congress, 430 00:22:45,990 --> 00:22:49,530 our partners at the Military Officers Association of America 431 00:22:49,530 --> 00:22:51,930 recently interviewed an Iraq war veteran 432 00:22:51,930 --> 00:22:55,500 about what passage of the act could mean for some veterans. 433 00:22:55,500 --> 00:22:56,700 Have a look. 434 00:22:56,700 --> 00:23:00,000 - Did you know over 54,000 combat injured service members 435 00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:01,140 who are medically retired 436 00:23:01,140 --> 00:23:04,290 are not receiving their full retirement benefits? 437 00:23:04,290 --> 00:23:05,850 For those forced to medically retire 438 00:23:05,850 --> 00:23:07,470 due to combat related injuries 439 00:23:07,470 --> 00:23:09,450 before hitting their 20-year mark, 440 00:23:09,450 --> 00:23:12,000 their retirement pay is offset dollar for dollar 441 00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:14,400 by their VA disability compensation, 442 00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:17,880 which in some cases erases their entire retirement. 443 00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:19,140 The Major Richard Star Act 444 00:23:19,140 --> 00:23:21,480 would allow combat-injured veterans to choose 445 00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:24,570 between receiving combat-related special compensation 446 00:23:24,570 --> 00:23:27,660 or collecting both payments, their retirement 447 00:23:27,660 --> 00:23:30,210 for their service and their disability compensation 448 00:23:30,210 --> 00:23:32,160 for service-connected injuries 449 00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:34,650 depending on their financial situation. 450 00:23:34,650 --> 00:23:37,230 I spoke with retired Army Major Ed Pulido 451 00:23:37,230 --> 00:23:39,180 in his office in Oklahoma City recently 452 00:23:39,180 --> 00:23:40,890 about the effect the Star Act would have 453 00:23:40,890 --> 00:23:42,630 on veterans like him. 454 00:23:42,630 --> 00:23:46,800 Pulido lost his leg to an IED blast in Iraq in 2004 455 00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:49,680 after serving almost 18 years in uniform. 456 00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:50,820 Forced to medically retire, 457 00:23:50,820 --> 00:23:53,100 Major Pulido had to contend with his recovery 458 00:23:53,100 --> 00:23:55,530 as well as the unjust offset of his retirement 459 00:23:55,530 --> 00:23:57,720 and disability payments. 460 00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:00,930 - I was traveling to the city of Baqubah, Iraq, 461 00:24:00,930 --> 00:24:03,600 very hostile environment. 462 00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:08,340 Al-Zarqawi was killed there in December of 2004. 463 00:24:08,340 --> 00:24:12,960 And as we were headed on that highway 464 00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:14,880 at about 12:04 in the afternoon, 465 00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:19,620 I hit an improvised explosive device, roadside bomb. 466 00:24:19,620 --> 00:24:22,170 First fragment hit my knee, broken in three places, 467 00:24:22,170 --> 00:24:25,170 fragments to the left side of my body, I was in trouble. 468 00:24:25,170 --> 00:24:26,790 But the great thing about an enlisted 469 00:24:26,790 --> 00:24:29,340 and our commission officer, the backbone of our military 470 00:24:29,340 --> 00:24:32,490 is they never leave anyone behind. 471 00:24:32,490 --> 00:24:34,803 And they saved my life. 472 00:24:35,730 --> 00:24:39,603 And I talk about it because it is emotional for me. 473 00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:45,560 I advocate for those individuals every day 474 00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:49,020 because I made a promise to the good Lord 475 00:24:49,020 --> 00:24:51,420 that if I got a second chance in life, 476 00:24:51,420 --> 00:24:52,890 that I would take care of them. 477 00:24:52,890 --> 00:24:56,520 And so, of course, you know, 38 surgeries, 478 00:24:56,520 --> 00:25:00,120 blood transfusions, I go from 195 pounds 479 00:25:00,120 --> 00:25:04,380 to about 118 pounds, and they tried to save the leg 480 00:25:04,380 --> 00:25:06,900 and the arm actually, I got my arm saved, 481 00:25:06,900 --> 00:25:09,660 but the leg just, there was no way to heal that. 482 00:25:09,660 --> 00:25:12,510 And so on October 1st, 2004, 483 00:25:12,510 --> 00:25:16,620 I actually faced probably the darkest day of my life 484 00:25:16,620 --> 00:25:18,630 and that was losing my left leg. 485 00:25:18,630 --> 00:25:22,620 And you know, that feeling of hopelessness, grief, 486 00:25:22,620 --> 00:25:25,080 but also just uneasiness. 487 00:25:25,080 --> 00:25:27,247 Like I was just thinking, 488 00:25:27,247 --> 00:25:29,790 "Man, I hope I'm not getting left behind." 489 00:25:29,790 --> 00:25:34,790 And I think that compensation specifically with the offset 490 00:25:35,190 --> 00:25:38,610 and with the Major Richard Star Act specifically, 491 00:25:38,610 --> 00:25:40,980 because that's what we're talking about, you know, 492 00:25:40,980 --> 00:25:42,810 that offset hurts. 493 00:25:42,810 --> 00:25:45,120 And for someone like me that had, you know, 494 00:25:45,120 --> 00:25:50,120 close to 18 years of service and now I have an offset. 495 00:25:50,250 --> 00:25:52,680 And as a major, I retired with, you know, 496 00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:56,520 I'm 100% from the disability side 497 00:25:56,520 --> 00:25:58,380 of the Department of Defense. 498 00:25:58,380 --> 00:26:01,230 And then I'm also 100% from the VA. 499 00:26:01,230 --> 00:26:03,930 And that offset does hurt, because all of a sudden, 500 00:26:03,930 --> 00:26:08,754 you're taking money from one end to make the offset work. 501 00:26:08,754 --> 00:26:10,770 And let me just tell you something, 502 00:26:10,770 --> 00:26:13,350 I would've made it to 20 years. 503 00:26:13,350 --> 00:26:15,330 Bottom line, I was headed that way. 504 00:26:15,330 --> 00:26:17,130 I just want them to do the right thing. 505 00:26:17,130 --> 00:26:21,123 And our legislators, I'm asking them to dig deep. 506 00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:25,560 There's a lot of 'em that are out there that are supportive. 507 00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:29,340 There's a lot of sponsors on both sides 508 00:26:29,340 --> 00:26:31,620 on the house and on the Senate, 509 00:26:31,620 --> 00:26:36,480 but it's time to live service that only goes so far. 510 00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:38,677 And it's time to really execute and say, 511 00:26:38,677 --> 00:26:40,830 "Hey, on behalf of a grateful nation, 512 00:26:40,830 --> 00:26:42,360 we're gonna make this right." 513 00:26:42,360 --> 00:26:44,250 - To see the rest of Major Pulido's interview 514 00:26:44,250 --> 00:26:46,440 and learn more about the Major Richard Star Act, 515 00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:49,353 visit MOAA.org/StarActStories. 516 00:26:50,490 --> 00:26:51,720 - [Chip] Well, that's all the time 517 00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:53,130 we have in this episode. 518 00:26:53,130 --> 00:26:55,803 Thanks for joining us and we'll see you next week. 519 00:26:57,870 --> 00:27:01,287 (intense dramatic music)