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- [Chip] On this episode of "Defense News Weekly,"
new analysis on the ramifications of the war in Iran.
The topic this week, China.
As the world's emergent global superpower,
what lessons is China taking away
from the US military action in the Middle East?
We hear from an expert on China about the defense,
economic and intelligence implications of the war
for a major American rival.
Join us for the latest in news
and analysis from the Pentagon
to the platoon here on "Defense News Weekly."
(intense music)
Welcome back to "Defense News Weekly."
One little talked about aspect of the war in Iran pertains
to its implications for a chief American rival, China.
What are the takeaways
for one of the US' major competitors on the global stage?
To find out, we sat down with an expert
on Chinese affairs from the Stimson Institute.
Here's some of what she had to say.
- Welcome back to "Defense News Weekly," I'm Ben Murray.
With the Iran war dominating headlines on a daily basis,
there's one topic getting little attention
as all eyes look to the Middle East, China.
What is the influential nation up to
as the conflict drags on?
To talk about it, I'm joined today by Dr. Yun Sun,
an expert on China from the Stimson Center here
in Washington, DC.
Dr. Sun, thanks so much for joining us.
- Thank you for having me. - So just wanted
to start right off the top,
as someone who is an expert in Chinese affairs
and studies the region, when you first saw the news
that the US and Israel were attacking Iran,
what was your initial reaction
to what the response would be?
- The initial reaction was, "Oh God, what is gonna happen
to President Trump's visit to China?"
Which at that point was scheduled
to happen towards the end of March.
And the original assumption was,
well, maybe this war will be over very quickly.
But as it dragged on,
I think the question became more and more pressing
as for whether the trip to China was still happening.
Later, it turned out that they postponed it
for about six weeks to mid May.
- And why is that so important?
Why was that, like, such a reaction
for a big global event and a war
that a visit like that would be the ramification?
- Yeah, because for watchers of US-China relations
and the evolution of US policy towards China,
especially under the Trump administration,
this visit by President Trump to Beijing
is like the event of the year.
It has been planned for a while.
Everyone is expecting
or speculating what would come out of the trip.
But first off, there needs to be a trip
for the two president to meet and to discuss.
So the postponement of this trip
is significant for the evolution, for the development
of US-China relations this year.
- And that's for trade primarily,
what was on the table for that?
- I think first off, there is a trade,
because the trade deal
that President Trump had been talking about
since the inauguration of his second term
has been the top priority coming to China
and what was reached after several rounds
of escalation, deescalation last year
is a revolution that there has been small deals,
but the trade deal has not happened.
So there are a lot of speculations
that this trip will produce that.
- Gotcha, where defense show or military show,
so something I've been wondering,
just we're all looking at the Middle East
and previously, and all the conversation was entirely among,
you know, like military folks and defense folks here.
What are we doing in INDOPACOM?
What is going on in, how are we building up INDOPACOM?
And now we're all looking to the other side.
And I've been wondering what is your assessment
of what is China is picking up,
what is it learning as it watches
what we're doing in the Middle East?
- There are several different lessons, I think,
the Chinese are currently observing.
The first one is the case of Iran,
just like the case of US Special Force going to Venezuela
to capture Maduro has demonstrated that US military
is extremely professional, extremely capable
when there is a well-defined tactical target,
just like as in what the Chinese have been observing
the rescue of our airmen from Iran.
Just look at the execution, look at the planning,
look at how professional the US military force was able
to carry out the mission to its complete success.
I think that shows the Chinese that on the tactical level,
US military is extremely capable.
But I think on the other hand,
the question on the Chinese side
is primarily on the strategy side,
that what was the strategic anticipation
going into this war with Iran?
What was the planning for the next steps?
What was the planning
or preparation for different scenarios?
Those seems to be a little lacking.
And I think for China, there's a lot of takeaways on that,
that if US engages to China, say,
in a potential Taiwan contingency,
would China be in a better position?
Because China will have already gamed out all the scenarios
and US apparently has not.
So I think that's one thing
that's hovering Chinese policymaker's mind.
And then beyond that, I think for the Chinese,
they're also observing how this war is being fought.
What strategies or what tactics have been effective
from the Iranian side
and what strategies have been effective on the US side,
and use these observations to gauge
how a potential military conflict would evolve
if there's one between US and China.
- Yeah, I was wondering if there is some value
in just watching and seeing
how the US military approached a large, well-armed country,
you know, as a means to stage an attack
and just watched and learned from that.
Do you think that is a bit of something
they can just pull something out of?
- Oh, absolutely, because Ukraine war
doesn't really offer China that perspective, right?
US is not directly involved,
and looking at the small operations,
like the one in Venezuela,
it doesn't offer much reference either.
So this is a one single case for China
to study how US fights a war
with essentially a regional power,
a weakened regional power, but still a regional power
with significant military might after all.
So there are a lot of differences between Iran
and China of course, but looking at how the war
is being fought and what are the doctrines
that US military follows, since there are a lot
of things that Chinese are learning.
- [Chip] When we come back,
more from our conversation with an expert on China
and the impact of the Iran war, stay tuned.
(intense music)
Welcome back to "Defense News Weekly."
The ripple effects of the US
and Israel's war in Iran have spread across the globe
in recent weeks, one country watching closely, China,
for deeper understanding of how the major US rival
is looking to leverage the conflict in their favor,
we turn to an expert on the country.
Here's some of the conversation.
- Former Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin,
he had an opinion piece out this morning
in the New York Times where he said
the US had to be better prepared to respond
to economic weapons essentially,
like we're seeing with the Strait of Hormuz,
and sort of global insecurity being triggered by a rival
or someone we're fighting with.
And he cautioned specifically
that China had way more potential to cause economic harm
around the globe in any sort of armed conflict.
Is that anything you can elaborate on?
He didn't go into any specifics.
- Well, China has developed
a pretty comprehensive economic coercive tools
throughout the years, whether it's the critical minerals,
the supply chain vulnerability, the choke point
that we suffer, or even it's just small things
as simple as chemicals we use to make our medication.
So throughout the years, I mean,
because China has been the world factory
that has developed the manufacturing capability
to supply the whole world,
so it does give us that vulnerability, right?
The question is, how do we manage that vulnerability?
Because there are a lot of things
that the US can make domestically but not efficiently.
And it's going to be more expensive.
Let's say that during COVID,
that China was producing all the world's medical supply,
especially the medical masks.
So can we produce that domestically?
We can, can we produce it more cheaply than the Chinese can?
No, we can't.
So I would say it's a delicate balance.
And we also remember, under the Biden administration,
we developed a concept of friend-shoring.
So there are friends and allies in the developing world
in Global South that arguably can also make
these rudimentary products as well as the Chinese do,
but the thing, the challenge there is that
what these countries do have to rely on China
for the materials they use to build these products.
So I think economic coercion is going
to be a longer-term problem when we deal with China
because they have developed those choke points.
- Could you doomsday scenario it for me for a second?
- Yeah. - If something, you know,
happens in the Indo-Pacific
and suddenly we are just in conflict with China,
what are the, you know, we think gas prices going up is bad,
but what are the things that you know of
or could elucidate for us that China,
what are the strings they could pull
to really upset things either for us or global?
- This is the most important takeaway from the war in Iran,
that we used to believe we have critical choke point
over the Chinese war fighting capability,
that we have a choke point in Malacca Strait.
We can potentially disrupt the Chinese shipment of oil
and disrupt their trade through the Indian oceans,
through the South China Sea.
And what the Chinese have demonstrated in this war is that,
well, they're far more resilient than we had ever imagined.
So in the future scenario
that we do have same Taiwan contingency
and we decided to cut off the Chinese oil shipment
from the Middle East, guess what, they can survive.
And they are demonstrating it through the current,
well, the crisis related to Iran.
What the Chinese can do, I think on economic coercion,
the Chinese will also try to cut off our supply.
For example, critical minerals,
which is essential for defense industries,
for the development of our high-tech weapons,
advanced weapon systems.
In the event of war, I think it's extremely unlikely
for China to continue to supply the United States
these critical minerals that we will need.
We are running basically as fast as we can
to develop the alternative source, but that will take time.
- Changing topics a little bit.
Is China getting any disadvantage?
Obviously, they're learning a lot.
They're seeing here what levers they could pull.
They're seeing how we have acted with our military here,
but are we getting a practice
in sort of a Ukraine-styled real-world scenario
that advances us further and gives us some advantage?
Are there any disadvantages for China here that you can see?
- Oh, totally. - You know, militarily,
politically, globally.
- I think the biggest disadvantage
that the Chinese have realized through this war
is that they used to believe that US is reluctant,
that US would not make a light decision
to go to war with a major regional power.
And Iran, no matter how weak or weakened,
it's still a regional power,
but just the willingness of Washington
to go into a war, not necessarily was a great plan
for how to handle different scenarios
like what we're looking at today,
but just the willingness to use force,
I think that's going to be a,
or that has been a significant shocker for the Chinese.
And I think after witnessing how US was reluctant to,
say, draw the red line in Syria,
to get involved in local conflicts,
I think just as the easiness the US decided
to go forward with this war on Iran
is going to give China a lot of pause
when they try to calculate or gauge or calibrate
how US may respond to a Chinese transgression
or a Chinese aggression towards Taiwan
over the Taiwan Strait.
I think they will have to assume that US is willing.
- That goes right to my last question, which was,
you know, having seen what we've seen here,
does it change China's calculus
on any offensive action towards Taiwan?
And seeing, you know, there's a lot of talk,
the Pentagon is very aggressive about saying
there is no stockpile problem.
We have a million of everything, they're rumbling in it.
But having seen what they're seeing is,
does it change our calculus
on potentially getting more aggressive towards Taiwan
now that the US is occupied elsewhere?
- I think that is very true.
I think if the Chinese identifies
that currently US is preoccupied
with several different friends,
then it will be less constrained,
where they will feel less constrained coming to Taiwan,
not necessarily to launch a military attack against Taiwan,
but they will be much more aggressive
and bold in pushing the envelopes, right,
to basically push Taiwan around,
sometimes use their gray zone coercion activities
to basically show the Taiwanese public opinion
that we're able to push you around
and US is not gonna come to your rescue.
So I think all those are definitely true.
And in my view, the Chinese strategies
since the second Trump administration towards Taiwan
is that whenever US does something to assist Taiwan,
China will target Taiwan instead
of pushing back against United States,
because China still wants
to maintain relatively good relationship
with President Trump.
But what we have seen is that China has not been shy
in beating Taiwan on the head.
Think about the arm sales last December,
the $11 billion arm sales for Taiwan,
which is unprecedented in terms of size.
What did the Chinese do?
The Chinese turned around
and launched a major military exercise against Taiwan
instead of pushing significantly back against Washington.
So I think the Chinese have been feeling emboldened
in a way in the case of Taiwan,
but it's not necessarily translating
to an immediate message that China will attack Taiwan.
- I think so, are we saying, just wrapping that up,
a bit of a bow, is it one possible outcome
that we see a Middle East with a much greater influence
from China on the region?
Is that what we're saying?
- Well, without a definitive ending of this war
and what that looks like,
I think it's going to be very hard to say that,
because so far, what we have seen is that,
well, despite all this narrative
about China being a power in the Middle East,
China has played a very minimal role in this conflict
towards the ending of this conflict.
So does China really have the critical influence
in the region to be the power
that a lot of people believe it is?
And remember, China does not have military presence
in the region, which we have challenged
that why don't you have military presence,
you have such critical oil interest to protect.
Well, I think this conflict showed us why.
So I could even make an argument
that maybe this conflict signifies the fact
that China will not be a military
or security provider in the region but instead,
will stay more on the economic cooperation,
commercial transaction, energy cooperation side
of the aisle.
- Dr. Yun Sun from the Stimson Center,
thanks so much for joining us today.
- Thank you for having me, Ben.
- [Chip] When we come back,
our finance expert returns with tips
on saving for your retirement.
Don't go away.
(intense music)
Welcome back, on this edition of "Money Minutes,"
Jeanette Mack from Navy Federal Credit Union walks you
through important steps for saving for your retirement.
Check it out.
- When it comes to retirement,
the best time to start saving is always now.
Waiting for the perfect moment
can end up costing you years of potential savings.
Even if your budget feels tight,
saving even the tiniest amount today
can make a big difference tomorrow
thanks to compounding interest.
Your deposits, however small,
have more power when they have time to grow.
Start by picturing your future.
Ask yourself, what do you want retirement to look like?
Will you be downsizing, traveling, working part-time,
or will every day be for relaxing?
Your vision helps guide how much you'll need to save.
Next, use what's available to you.
If you have an employer supported retirement plan, use it.
Those savings really add up over time,
especially if your company offers an employer match up
to a certain percentage.
That's free money you shouldn't leave on the table.
And if you're saving on your own,
options like IRAs help your money grow with tax advantages.
Just keep at the habit of saving.
You don't have to be perfect.
Start small, stick with it,
and increase contributions when you get a raise,
a bonus or pay off debt.
It's the habit of saving, not the amount.
Believe me, your future self will thank you.
- [Chip] To get more coverage of military
and defense topics,
aim your personal surveillance satellite
at militarytimes.com and defensenews.com for more headlines.
And to be the most informed mortarman in the infantry,
sign up for our early bird brief compiled each morning
to bring you the most recent news.
Finally, if social media
is where you collect open source intelligence,
follow us on YouTube, Facebook, Instagram and X.
And for you Gen Z troops, we're on TikTok.
So go follow us there as well.
When we return, a special report
on major veteran's legislation before Congress.
Stay with us.
(intense music)
Welcome back to "Defense News Weekly."
The Major Richard Star Act is aimed at allowing veterans
with combat-related injuries to receive more benefits
than currently allowed under law.
With the bills stalled in Congress,
our partners at the Military Officers Association of America
recently interviewed an Iraq war veteran
about what passage of the act could mean for some veterans.
Have a look.
- Did you know over 54,000 combat injured service members
who are medically retired
are not receiving their full retirement benefits?
For those forced to medically retire
due to combat related injuries
before hitting their 20-year mark,
their retirement pay is offset dollar for dollar
by their VA disability compensation,
which in some cases erases their entire retirement.
The Major Richard Star Act
would allow combat-injured veterans to choose
between receiving combat-related special compensation
or collecting both payments, their retirement
for their service and their disability compensation
for service-connected injuries
depending on their financial situation.
I spoke with retired Army Major Ed Pulido
in his office in Oklahoma City recently
about the effect the Star Act would have
on veterans like him.
Pulido lost his leg to an IED blast in Iraq in 2004
after serving almost 18 years in uniform.
Forced to medically retire,
Major Pulido had to contend with his recovery
as well as the unjust offset of his retirement
and disability payments.
- I was traveling to the city of Baqubah, Iraq,
very hostile environment.
Al-Zarqawi was killed there in December of 2004.
And as we were headed on that highway
at about 12:04 in the afternoon,
I hit an improvised explosive device, roadside bomb.
First fragment hit my knee, broken in three places,
fragments to the left side of my body, I was in trouble.
But the great thing about an enlisted
and our commission officer, the backbone of our military
is they never leave anyone behind.
And they saved my life.
And I talk about it because it is emotional for me.
I advocate for those individuals every day
because I made a promise to the good Lord
that if I got a second chance in life,
that I would take care of them.
And so, of course, you know, 38 surgeries,
blood transfusions, I go from 195 pounds
to about 118 pounds, and they tried to save the leg
and the arm actually, I got my arm saved,
but the leg just, there was no way to heal that.
And so on October 1st, 2004,
I actually faced probably the darkest day of my life
and that was losing my left leg.
And you know, that feeling of hopelessness, grief,
but also just uneasiness.
Like I was just thinking,
"Man, I hope I'm not getting left behind."
And I think that compensation specifically with the offset
and with the Major Richard Star Act specifically,
because that's what we're talking about, you know,
that offset hurts.
And for someone like me that had, you know,
close to 18 years of service and now I have an offset.
And as a major, I retired with, you know,
I'm 100% from the disability side
of the Department of Defense.
And then I'm also 100% from the VA.
And that offset does hurt, because all of a sudden,
you're taking money from one end to make the offset work.
And let me just tell you something,
I would've made it to 20 years.
Bottom line, I was headed that way.
I just want them to do the right thing.
And our legislators, I'm asking them to dig deep.
There's a lot of 'em that are out there that are supportive.
There's a lot of sponsors on both sides
on the house and on the Senate,
but it's time to live service that only goes so far.
And it's time to really execute and say,
"Hey, on behalf of a grateful nation,
we're gonna make this right."
- To see the rest of Major Pulido's interview
and learn more about the Major Richard Star Act,
visit MOAA.org/StarActStories.
- [Chip] Well, that's all the time
we have in this episode.
Thanks for joining us and we'll see you next week.
(intense dramatic music)