1 00:00:01,520 --> 00:00:04,559 The trick with Canadian federalism, 2 00:00:04,559 --> 00:00:08,980 as veteran NDP operative Brian Topp once said, 3 00:00:08,980 --> 00:00:13,620 is to find the thread that unites the pearls. 4 00:00:13,620 --> 00:00:16,839 This week, we saw what may well prove to be the dawning 5 00:00:16,839 --> 00:00:19,899 of a new era of cooperative federalism, 6 00:00:19,899 --> 00:00:23,039 and Mark Carney and the premiers met to discuss 7 00:00:23,039 --> 00:00:27,360 driving forward nation building projects, in his words. 8 00:00:27,360 --> 00:00:31,099 To discuss whether he's found the thread that unites those pearls, 9 00:00:31,099 --> 00:00:33,720 I'm joined by doctor Heather Exner Perrault, 10 00:00:33,720 --> 00:00:36,219 a senior fellow and director of the energy, 11 00:00:36,219 --> 00:00:40,200 Natural Resources and the environment at the Macdonald-laurier Institute and 12 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:45,160 a senior fellow and advisor for the Business Council of Canada. Heather, welcome. 13 00:00:45,160 --> 00:00:46,780 Yeah, great to be here. 14 00:00:46,780 --> 00:00:49,840 So has Carney found that thread? 15 00:00:49,840 --> 00:00:51,960 Do you think that, um, 16 00:00:51,960 --> 00:00:54,799 the ideas that were put forward now, 17 00:00:54,799 --> 00:00:56,200 we don't know the exact project list, 18 00:00:56,200 --> 00:00:58,140 but we kind of know the general direction. 19 00:00:58,140 --> 00:01:02,680 Do you think that will increase Increased national prosperity going down the avenue. 20 00:01:02,680 --> 00:01:04,300 Avenue? We seem to be going down. 21 00:01:04,300 --> 00:01:08,980 Or do you think that we may be pursuing white elephant projects that 22 00:01:08,980 --> 00:01:14,139 either are unfeasible or technically and bureaucratically, 23 00:01:14,139 --> 00:01:16,979 or they are just not economic? 24 00:01:16,979 --> 00:01:19,940 Yeah, a little from column A and a little from column B. John. 25 00:01:19,940 --> 00:01:21,879 So so there is you know, 26 00:01:21,879 --> 00:01:26,260 the tone is markedly improved from the last Liberal government. 27 00:01:26,260 --> 00:01:28,100 So there is some optimism. 28 00:01:28,100 --> 00:01:32,499 There is a sense that the federal government will be a partner in building things, 29 00:01:32,499 --> 00:01:34,699 whether, you know, for a long time we've thought that they were 30 00:01:34,699 --> 00:01:37,460 blocking our ability to build things. 31 00:01:37,460 --> 00:01:39,460 So so all a great start. 32 00:01:39,460 --> 00:01:41,199 And Hodgson has said, 33 00:01:41,199 --> 00:01:42,920 you know all the right things so far. 34 00:01:42,920 --> 00:01:44,319 Now of course, you know, 35 00:01:44,319 --> 00:01:48,140 this is so long that you can have a honeymoon period before things have to happen. 36 00:01:48,140 --> 00:01:49,920 We actually have to see some action. 37 00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:51,740 And we know that liberal governments are very good at 38 00:01:51,740 --> 00:01:54,560 rhetoric and not so great at implementation. 39 00:01:54,560 --> 00:01:56,100 So now you know, 40 00:01:56,100 --> 00:02:00,409 the direction it's going is a little concerning in that, 41 00:02:00,409 --> 00:02:02,170 you know, so far they want to, you know, 42 00:02:02,170 --> 00:02:04,830 have a short list of nation building projects that they 43 00:02:04,830 --> 00:02:07,790 determine if it's nation building and use the public purse, 44 00:02:07,790 --> 00:02:10,049 I assume, for most of them to fund them 45 00:02:10,049 --> 00:02:12,930 in cases where the private sector would not have stepped up. 46 00:02:12,930 --> 00:02:16,090 And there may be a handful of projects where you feel that's justified. 47 00:02:16,090 --> 00:02:17,949 You know, there's obviously a role for the government, 48 00:02:17,949 --> 00:02:20,590 for governments to, to build infrastructure. 49 00:02:20,590 --> 00:02:25,950 Um, but the low hanging fruit is obviously to improve our regulatory competitiveness. 50 00:02:25,950 --> 00:02:27,150 We have very restrictive, 51 00:02:27,150 --> 00:02:29,550 very burdensome regulatory processes. 52 00:02:29,550 --> 00:02:31,729 Um, there's a lot of projects that proponents 53 00:02:31,729 --> 00:02:34,250 want to do on their own without government help. 54 00:02:34,250 --> 00:02:35,550 If the regulation was better, 55 00:02:35,550 --> 00:02:37,270 if we had higher tax competitiveness, 56 00:02:37,270 --> 00:02:39,670 better tax competitiveness with our competitors. 57 00:02:39,670 --> 00:02:41,369 And so, you know, 58 00:02:41,369 --> 00:02:45,030 I will tolerate a handful of these nation building projects. 59 00:02:45,030 --> 00:02:48,349 I think, uh, if they if they make sense from a business side, 60 00:02:48,349 --> 00:02:50,449 uh, but at the end of the day, 61 00:02:50,449 --> 00:02:51,570 within, I would say, 62 00:02:51,570 --> 00:02:52,709 you know, six months or a year, 63 00:02:52,709 --> 00:02:56,550 we're going to need to see the regulations improved and streamlined. 64 00:02:56,550 --> 00:02:59,220 So two things on that. 65 00:02:59,220 --> 00:03:02,330 on regulatory approval and on tax. 66 00:03:02,330 --> 00:03:05,530 Mark Carney talked about a two year regulatory window. 67 00:03:05,530 --> 00:03:07,450 And we're currently at what five times that. 68 00:03:07,450 --> 00:03:09,430 So we're around ten years. 8 to 10 years. 69 00:03:09,430 --> 00:03:11,950 That seems very ambitious. 70 00:03:11,950 --> 00:03:13,390 First of all is that doable. 71 00:03:13,390 --> 00:03:15,450 Secondly the tax competitiveness. 72 00:03:15,450 --> 00:03:21,550 Are you suggesting that we either abolish or freeze the industrial carbon tax? 73 00:03:21,550 --> 00:03:24,710 Yeah. Okay. Two different questions. So let's dig in. 74 00:03:24,710 --> 00:03:28,230 Um, on the first one on regulation, it's, you know, 75 00:03:28,230 --> 00:03:29,530 depending on what you're building, 76 00:03:29,530 --> 00:03:30,729 will take more or less time, 77 00:03:30,729 --> 00:03:32,570 depending on if you need a federal approval. 78 00:03:32,570 --> 00:03:34,650 And a provincial approval will take more or less time, 79 00:03:34,650 --> 00:03:37,850 the complexity and whether there's indigenous support. 80 00:03:37,850 --> 00:03:40,150 So ideally, yes. I mean, 81 00:03:40,150 --> 00:03:41,890 I think two years is a great target. 82 00:03:41,890 --> 00:03:43,750 We should walk before we run. 83 00:03:43,750 --> 00:03:45,570 You know, I guess, you know, for some of these things, 84 00:03:45,570 --> 00:03:47,450 three years would also look pretty good. 85 00:03:47,450 --> 00:03:50,650 Uh, but but two years is certainly feasible if we had 86 00:03:50,650 --> 00:03:54,370 good processes and if we had good relations with the indigenous partners. 87 00:03:54,370 --> 00:03:56,530 The concerns we're talking about six months. 88 00:03:56,530 --> 00:04:00,049 And that just didn't seem feasible to me that you would never be able to 89 00:04:00,049 --> 00:04:03,910 fulfill your duty to consult and accommodate in such a timeline. 90 00:04:03,910 --> 00:04:05,029 So two years is ambitious, 91 00:04:05,029 --> 00:04:08,010 but doable, and we should and we should reach for it. 92 00:04:08,010 --> 00:04:11,070 Um, on on your other question, 93 00:04:11,070 --> 00:04:12,690 which is the industrial carbon tax? 94 00:04:12,690 --> 00:04:13,890 I mean, some of it is just, you know, 95 00:04:13,890 --> 00:04:15,329 capital gains, you know, 96 00:04:15,329 --> 00:04:17,110 that that was a whole brouhaha. 97 00:04:17,110 --> 00:04:21,930 Um, and we all know at some there is a level at which the more you tax, 98 00:04:21,930 --> 00:04:23,630 the less investment you come in, 99 00:04:23,630 --> 00:04:25,450 and actually the less tax take you get. 100 00:04:25,450 --> 00:04:27,189 And UK is finding out this lesson, 101 00:04:27,189 --> 00:04:30,110 this economic lesson right now in real time. 102 00:04:30,110 --> 00:04:33,470 And so again, a lot of Canadian capital, uh, 103 00:04:33,470 --> 00:04:36,130 if you're talking about energy and resource sector, you know, 104 00:04:36,130 --> 00:04:39,770 those are goods that you can invest in any mine or in any project. 105 00:04:39,770 --> 00:04:43,589 And it has absolutely been the case that Texas in particular, 106 00:04:43,589 --> 00:04:47,950 uh, you know, southern United States has been just an easier jurisdiction. 107 00:04:47,950 --> 00:04:49,909 Uh, better regulation, better tax, 108 00:04:49,909 --> 00:04:52,210 and that our capital has gone south. 109 00:04:52,210 --> 00:04:55,230 And so we would like to bring some of that capital back home. 110 00:04:55,230 --> 00:04:56,230 But at the end of the day, 111 00:04:56,230 --> 00:04:59,610 investors are going to make those decisions based on the return that they get. 112 00:04:59,610 --> 00:05:00,630 So yes, you know, 113 00:05:00,630 --> 00:05:02,609 if we if we build those projects here, 114 00:05:02,609 --> 00:05:04,089 we get the royalties, we get the taxes, 115 00:05:04,089 --> 00:05:05,250 we get the jobs. 116 00:05:05,250 --> 00:05:06,930 So let's make sure that our tax system is 117 00:05:06,930 --> 00:05:10,270 competitive so that capital actually wants to choose Canada. 118 00:05:10,270 --> 00:05:12,510 You mentioned the indigenous component. 119 00:05:12,510 --> 00:05:15,610 And you know, 15 years ago I remember just about every project 120 00:05:15,610 --> 00:05:19,370 was was ending up in court and essentially not getting built. 121 00:05:19,370 --> 00:05:21,430 Has that landscape changed? 122 00:05:21,430 --> 00:05:24,929 I mean, this this government's been very vocal about raising the amount 123 00:05:24,929 --> 00:05:28,710 that First Nations can borrow as loan guarantees. 124 00:05:28,710 --> 00:05:31,550 Um, everybody's talking about equity partnerships. 125 00:05:31,550 --> 00:05:34,250 Does that change the picture fundamentally, do you think? 126 00:05:34,250 --> 00:05:35,590 Yeah. And I just, you know, 127 00:05:35,590 --> 00:05:37,310 just to take it back a step, 128 00:05:37,310 --> 00:05:38,749 you know, in the 20th century, 129 00:05:38,749 --> 00:05:40,970 I would say there was very little attention 130 00:05:40,970 --> 00:05:43,410 paid to indigenous rights and indigenous concerns. 131 00:05:43,410 --> 00:05:45,249 And they were railroaded and they didn't get really 132 00:05:45,249 --> 00:05:47,290 benefits from projects in their territory. 133 00:05:47,290 --> 00:05:50,930 When this really changed was when the Supreme Court affirmed the duty to consult and 134 00:05:50,930 --> 00:05:55,170 accommodate in a series of decisions in 2004 and 2005. 135 00:05:55,170 --> 00:05:57,310 And that's when the landscape shifted where 136 00:05:57,310 --> 00:05:59,720 an impact and benefit agreement went from a nice to do. 137 00:05:59,720 --> 00:06:02,440 Corporate social responsibility to a need to do. 138 00:06:02,440 --> 00:06:07,200 And indigenous state rights holders start to really leverage the fact that, you know, 139 00:06:07,200 --> 00:06:08,419 they could block a project, 140 00:06:08,419 --> 00:06:12,220 they could delay it if they weren't satisfied with the outcome. 141 00:06:12,220 --> 00:06:14,100 And that has been a real struggle. 142 00:06:14,100 --> 00:06:15,940 And it's been painful and it's been expensive. 143 00:06:15,940 --> 00:06:17,819 But over the last 20 years, 144 00:06:17,819 --> 00:06:20,179 industry and indigenous stakeholders, 145 00:06:20,179 --> 00:06:21,960 rights holders have come to some, 146 00:06:21,960 --> 00:06:24,980 you know, have found some models that actually work. 147 00:06:24,980 --> 00:06:27,660 And the loan guarantee is probably the best example. 148 00:06:27,660 --> 00:06:30,140 Um, and we've seen it work exceptionally well in Alberta. 149 00:06:30,140 --> 00:06:33,260 It really helps with utility kinds of projects, pipelines, 150 00:06:33,260 --> 00:06:36,480 transmission and power generation where it's pretty low risk. 151 00:06:36,480 --> 00:06:38,900 You get, you know, you usually have a long term contract. 152 00:06:38,900 --> 00:06:40,400 So that helps pay off the loan. 153 00:06:40,400 --> 00:06:41,560 It's a you know, 154 00:06:41,560 --> 00:06:43,000 no one's going to default. 155 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:48,460 It's not as useful for things like upstream oil and gas production or mining development. 156 00:06:48,460 --> 00:06:50,899 And so we need a suite of tools, 157 00:06:50,899 --> 00:06:52,439 not just the loan guarantee, 158 00:06:52,439 --> 00:06:55,580 but for sure for the kinds of things I think Carney is talking about 159 00:06:55,580 --> 00:06:59,480 energy corridors, transmission railroads, pipelines. 160 00:06:59,480 --> 00:07:01,740 That loan guarantee model is very good. 161 00:07:01,740 --> 00:07:02,880 It has been very successful. 162 00:07:02,880 --> 00:07:07,680 There's very little risk to the taxpayer and it does help advance that reconciliation. 163 00:07:07,680 --> 00:07:09,960 So we've been talking pretty generically till now. 164 00:07:09,960 --> 00:07:11,960 But let's get specific. 165 00:07:11,960 --> 00:07:16,000 Take a look at the map of Canada from moving from east to west, 166 00:07:16,000 --> 00:07:20,740 and look at potential projects that could be put forward for this list. 167 00:07:20,740 --> 00:07:24,160 Do you think a bitumen pipeline should be a priority, 168 00:07:24,160 --> 00:07:25,899 and if so, which one? 169 00:07:25,899 --> 00:07:29,820 Well, a bitumen pipeline to the west coast should be a priority. 170 00:07:29,820 --> 00:07:33,120 So sorry John. We have to start west, not east. 171 00:07:33,120 --> 00:07:34,840 I think I said did I say west to east? 172 00:07:34,840 --> 00:07:36,160 I hope that's what I meant to say. 173 00:07:36,160 --> 00:07:37,340 I meant to say West to east. 174 00:07:37,340 --> 00:07:39,860 Yeah. This this is this is true fact. 175 00:07:39,860 --> 00:07:41,040 Danielle Smith has said it. 176 00:07:41,040 --> 00:07:43,680 But, you know, my analysis suggests it's absolutely true. 177 00:07:43,680 --> 00:07:47,199 There is nothing that will change the economic growth, 178 00:07:47,199 --> 00:07:52,860 the GDP, the productivity per capita in this country as much as bitumen pipeline. 179 00:07:52,860 --> 00:07:55,139 And so so you know, 180 00:07:55,139 --> 00:07:57,180 we have we have some egress. 181 00:07:57,180 --> 00:07:59,700 We have most of it. Everyone knows now that goes to the south. 182 00:07:59,700 --> 00:08:02,460 We finally added Trans Mountain about a year ago. 183 00:08:02,460 --> 00:08:06,640 That's at 90% utilization right now in one year. 184 00:08:06,640 --> 00:08:09,059 And people can I just point out because not 40%, 185 00:08:09,059 --> 00:08:11,260 which is what Steven said. 186 00:08:11,260 --> 00:08:13,920 I heard that one too. Uh, it's at 90. 187 00:08:13,920 --> 00:08:15,899 That's in the golden male from straight from 188 00:08:15,899 --> 00:08:18,900 Trans Mountain in their financial statements to the government last week. 189 00:08:18,900 --> 00:08:20,540 So that's a very high quality source. 190 00:08:20,540 --> 00:08:23,240 So in one sense it's amazing. 191 00:08:23,240 --> 00:08:24,840 Our producers filled it so fast. 192 00:08:24,840 --> 00:08:28,360 There's clearly demand we're seeing most of that demands come from Asia. 193 00:08:28,360 --> 00:08:31,820 The majority which we didn't know if it would come from California or Asia. 194 00:08:31,820 --> 00:08:35,100 So strong demand in global markets for Canadian heavy oil. 195 00:08:35,100 --> 00:08:37,419 But also concerning that, you know, 196 00:08:37,419 --> 00:08:39,559 we added this pipeline and we're already, 197 00:08:39,559 --> 00:08:42,280 you know, staring down at the barrel of running out of egress. 198 00:08:42,280 --> 00:08:43,760 And so there does you know, 199 00:08:43,760 --> 00:08:45,979 there isn't there is urgency, 200 00:08:45,979 --> 00:08:49,860 I would say from the producers that we need to start thinking about the next pipeline. 201 00:08:49,860 --> 00:08:51,239 And we know it's not you know, 202 00:08:51,239 --> 00:08:52,499 I don't I don't think we're going to get 203 00:08:52,499 --> 00:08:54,720 Northern Gateway in two years if everything went well, 204 00:08:54,720 --> 00:08:56,040 probably four for years. 205 00:08:56,040 --> 00:08:59,340 And that's why we have to start saying it now and planning for it now. 206 00:08:59,340 --> 00:09:03,980 We can also expand Trans Mountain with a few improvements. 207 00:09:03,980 --> 00:09:07,240 And if we can actually add a couple hundred thousand barrels to Trans Mountain, 208 00:09:07,240 --> 00:09:08,840 that'll give us some breathing room. 209 00:09:08,840 --> 00:09:10,639 And if we want to send more south, 210 00:09:10,639 --> 00:09:14,160 we can also again expand some of those existing pipelines where you don't have 211 00:09:14,160 --> 00:09:17,680 to build a whole new pipeline and get a couple hundred thousand barrels. 212 00:09:17,680 --> 00:09:19,060 But we're still looking at, I would say, 213 00:09:19,060 --> 00:09:21,419 2027, we better know, you know, 214 00:09:21,419 --> 00:09:23,300 we better have starting to, 215 00:09:23,300 --> 00:09:26,000 you know, plan that next big pipeline. 216 00:09:26,000 --> 00:09:27,480 I spoke to Ian Anderson, 217 00:09:27,480 --> 00:09:30,140 who was the head of TMX during the build, 218 00:09:30,140 --> 00:09:31,799 and he mentioned this northern leg, 219 00:09:31,799 --> 00:09:34,400 which was which is part of the original plan. 220 00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:37,400 It was then shelved in 2005 or 6, 221 00:09:37,400 --> 00:09:39,900 but is still feasible. 222 00:09:39,900 --> 00:09:41,440 And he said he could build it in 2 or 3 years. 223 00:09:41,440 --> 00:09:43,360 If you had First Nations support, 224 00:09:43,360 --> 00:09:44,580 it would go to Kitimat. 225 00:09:44,580 --> 00:09:47,980 So it would basically be a branch off the the main TMX, I guess. 226 00:09:47,980 --> 00:09:50,080 Is that something that people are talking about? 227 00:09:50,080 --> 00:09:52,600 I mean, if you went to Calgary and said, 228 00:09:52,600 --> 00:09:53,640 we'll build this pipeline, 229 00:09:53,640 --> 00:09:55,990 no one's going to say no to any pipeline. 230 00:09:55,990 --> 00:09:58,570 But if I were just to choose, 231 00:09:58,570 --> 00:09:59,769 I would say, you know, 232 00:09:59,769 --> 00:10:03,810 and again, I think Ian has said that that would add maybe 3 or 400,000 barrels. 233 00:10:03,810 --> 00:10:06,070 Yeah. And, and it would, you know, 234 00:10:06,070 --> 00:10:07,470 ideally then, you know, 235 00:10:07,470 --> 00:10:08,630 which would be great. 236 00:10:08,630 --> 00:10:10,130 Ideally we're going to add, you know, 237 00:10:10,130 --> 00:10:12,229 let's have a million barrel pipeline, 238 00:10:12,229 --> 00:10:13,990 uh, to the West Coast. 239 00:10:13,990 --> 00:10:16,130 And so I'm certainly wouldn't be opposed to that. 240 00:10:16,130 --> 00:10:18,650 I think there's only so much political capital and 241 00:10:18,650 --> 00:10:21,610 financial capital to build pipelines in this country. 242 00:10:21,610 --> 00:10:23,370 So I would, you know, if I had my, 243 00:10:23,370 --> 00:10:25,530 my way, I would have a bigger pipeline. 244 00:10:25,530 --> 00:10:27,950 And and whether it goes to Kitimat or Prince Rupert. 245 00:10:27,950 --> 00:10:29,370 Prince Rupert's a little bit further. 246 00:10:29,370 --> 00:10:31,330 The politics might be a little bit easier. 247 00:10:31,330 --> 00:10:34,450 Uh, Kitimat is the home for a lot of the big LNG projects. 248 00:10:34,450 --> 00:10:36,730 That will be a busy place. Um, so we'll see. 249 00:10:36,730 --> 00:10:37,929 It ends up, uh, 250 00:10:37,929 --> 00:10:39,270 but there's plan A, plan B, 251 00:10:39,270 --> 00:10:40,730 plan C, plan D, 252 00:10:40,730 --> 00:10:45,490 uh, the first thing you have to do is get rid of the oil tanker ban. Zero. 253 00:10:45,490 --> 00:10:47,090 Well, you bring that up. So B.C. 254 00:10:47,090 --> 00:10:50,210 is objecting to the objection to the tanker ban remains, 255 00:10:50,210 --> 00:10:51,890 according to David Eby. 256 00:10:51,890 --> 00:10:52,969 But but, you know, 257 00:10:52,969 --> 00:10:55,390 none of these premiers exist in a vacuum, 258 00:10:55,390 --> 00:10:59,550 and the opinion polling was an Angus Reid poll which suggested the majority of 259 00:10:59,550 --> 00:11:04,190 Canadians are in favor of a of a pipeline to the West Coast or reviving Northern Gateway. 260 00:11:04,190 --> 00:11:07,130 In fact, the majority of British Columbians are too. 261 00:11:07,130 --> 00:11:11,329 So presumably, if the federal government and 262 00:11:11,329 --> 00:11:16,470 all the other provincial governments and the people of British Columbia are on side, 263 00:11:16,470 --> 00:11:19,449 Mr. Eby would have to think again. No. 264 00:11:19,449 --> 00:11:22,269 I I'm finding this hard to understand, 265 00:11:22,269 --> 00:11:24,590 because BC has actually done 266 00:11:24,590 --> 00:11:28,429 some constructive and progressive things on the economic development side since January, 267 00:11:28,429 --> 00:11:30,070 since Trump was inaugurated, 268 00:11:30,070 --> 00:11:33,169 and Eby has almost been the most vocal, you know, 269 00:11:33,169 --> 00:11:34,329 the maddest, you know, 270 00:11:34,329 --> 00:11:36,610 a little bit and wanting, you know, the elbows up. 271 00:11:36,610 --> 00:11:39,910 And he said he stood there in February and said, 272 00:11:39,910 --> 00:11:42,349 if we don't sell Canadian oil and gas, 273 00:11:42,349 --> 00:11:44,830 they will just get it from places like Venezuela. 274 00:11:44,830 --> 00:11:46,689 And I thought, wow, this guy has, 275 00:11:46,689 --> 00:11:48,890 you know, he's had a, you know, the light bulb moment. 276 00:11:48,890 --> 00:11:50,150 He knows what's up. 277 00:11:50,150 --> 00:11:51,630 Um, and now to hear this 278 00:11:51,630 --> 00:11:54,670 two and a half months later is actually, frankly, quite disappointing. 279 00:11:54,670 --> 00:11:57,829 Now, a lot of this is federal jurisdiction, actually, you know, 280 00:11:57,829 --> 00:11:59,290 so we want the feds to get out of the way, 281 00:11:59,290 --> 00:12:00,929 but not in interprovincial pipelines, 282 00:12:00,929 --> 00:12:03,330 because that is clearly federal jurisdiction. 283 00:12:03,330 --> 00:12:06,110 And we know from Trans Mountain when BC, if you recall, 284 00:12:06,110 --> 00:12:10,570 BC said we will use every tool in the toolbox to stop this project. 285 00:12:10,570 --> 00:12:13,290 And they did, but it still wasn't there. 286 00:12:13,290 --> 00:12:16,330 Right. And so we do know from a lot of court precedents, yes, 287 00:12:16,330 --> 00:12:18,490 the feds can say yes to a pipeline, 288 00:12:18,490 --> 00:12:21,210 but yes, the feds can overturn the oil tanker ban. 289 00:12:21,210 --> 00:12:22,650 That's their jurisdiction. 290 00:12:22,650 --> 00:12:26,809 But what proponent really wants to step into a situation where, again, 291 00:12:26,809 --> 00:12:31,450 a provincial government is going to use every tool in the toolbox to stop your project. 292 00:12:31,450 --> 00:12:33,969 And so it's obviously not bullish for 293 00:12:33,969 --> 00:12:37,730 investment to have this kind of political disagreement on the ground, 294 00:12:37,730 --> 00:12:40,450 which is extremely, extremely frustrating. 295 00:12:40,450 --> 00:12:42,510 It is our most prized resource, 296 00:12:42,510 --> 00:12:44,610 our most valuable resource. 297 00:12:44,610 --> 00:12:47,930 There's only one economic reasonable way to get it to tidewater. 298 00:12:47,930 --> 00:12:49,270 That's to BC. 299 00:12:49,270 --> 00:12:51,830 And BC. Is the bottleneck. 300 00:12:51,830 --> 00:12:53,880 Still on the pipeline. 301 00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:56,880 Um, in the meeting of premiers and, 302 00:12:56,880 --> 00:12:59,620 uh, Mark Carney last week, uh, 303 00:12:59,620 --> 00:13:02,340 Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Carney both talked about 304 00:13:02,340 --> 00:13:05,779 this grand bargain where inverted commas, 305 00:13:05,779 --> 00:13:08,940 decarbonised bitumen would be shipped to the West Coast. 306 00:13:08,940 --> 00:13:11,659 And the theory, as explained by Danielle Smith, 307 00:13:11,659 --> 00:13:16,740 was it would be decarbonised by carbon capture and storage, uh, 308 00:13:16,740 --> 00:13:19,179 the Pathways Alliance project, 309 00:13:19,179 --> 00:13:22,720 which presumably the federal government would, would fund. 310 00:13:22,720 --> 00:13:26,139 Is this a feasible is this grand bargain feasible? Do you think. 311 00:13:26,139 --> 00:13:27,820 It is feasible? 312 00:13:27,820 --> 00:13:30,980 And I have an article coming out next week on this. 313 00:13:30,980 --> 00:13:32,580 So I have all the facts at hand, John. 314 00:13:32,580 --> 00:13:33,800 But, um, you know, 315 00:13:33,800 --> 00:13:38,640 the emissions cap is just preposterously expensive way to reduce emissions. 316 00:13:38,640 --> 00:13:39,780 Um, at a minimum, 317 00:13:39,780 --> 00:13:42,720 it's about $2,000 a ton per carbon, 318 00:13:42,720 --> 00:13:44,860 and it's all in the paper next week, as you can see it. 319 00:13:44,860 --> 00:13:47,460 But but the things that the industry 320 00:13:47,460 --> 00:13:50,820 itself has proposed is carbon capture and also using some, 321 00:13:50,820 --> 00:13:54,699 some solvents to reduce emissions missions they've done since, you know, 322 00:13:54,699 --> 00:13:56,720 in the last 11 years, 323 00:13:56,720 --> 00:13:59,880 have actually reduced carbon intensity emissions per barrel by 324 00:13:59,880 --> 00:14:03,159 30% and an absolute basis have reduced it, 325 00:14:03,159 --> 00:14:04,960 I think, by 25kg a barrel. 326 00:14:04,960 --> 00:14:06,540 So they are doing the work. 327 00:14:06,540 --> 00:14:10,920 Uh, a lot of the carbon comes from natural gas input to heat the bitumen. 328 00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:11,980 That's an expense. 329 00:14:11,980 --> 00:14:14,420 There's every every reason why they would rather, 330 00:14:14,420 --> 00:14:17,000 you know, not have to pay that kind of money and find ways. 331 00:14:17,000 --> 00:14:19,720 But right now, the oil sands, uh, on a, 332 00:14:19,720 --> 00:14:21,160 on a life cycle basis is 333 00:14:21,160 --> 00:14:26,140 only about 1 to 3% higher emissions than the global average barrel, the average crude. 334 00:14:26,140 --> 00:14:27,720 And if you compared it to other heavies, 335 00:14:27,720 --> 00:14:28,999 they'd actually be, uh, 336 00:14:28,999 --> 00:14:30,520 you know, less than the average heavy. 337 00:14:30,520 --> 00:14:32,279 But if we did this carbon capture, 338 00:14:32,279 --> 00:14:34,640 if we did some of the solvent, uh, 339 00:14:34,640 --> 00:14:36,200 innovations that they're using, 340 00:14:36,200 --> 00:14:39,780 they would actually be below the global average on a lifecycle basis. 341 00:14:39,780 --> 00:14:42,680 And so and so there is a grand bargain to be had. 342 00:14:42,680 --> 00:14:44,680 Industry itself has been advocating it. 343 00:14:44,680 --> 00:14:46,180 I've heard it in closed doors. 344 00:14:46,180 --> 00:14:47,480 It's not just propaganda, 345 00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:48,720 it's just it's not marketing. 346 00:14:48,720 --> 00:14:50,180 I've heard it behind closed doors. 347 00:14:50,180 --> 00:14:51,500 Them saying we want this. 348 00:14:51,500 --> 00:14:53,920 We're very competitive on an economic basis basis. 349 00:14:53,920 --> 00:14:56,020 We want to be competitive on a carbon basis. 350 00:14:56,020 --> 00:14:57,740 So there's great work to be done. 351 00:14:57,740 --> 00:15:00,900 I think there's a grand bargain with Danielle Smith is saying is if 352 00:15:00,900 --> 00:15:04,440 you have no point of view on increasing your production, 353 00:15:04,440 --> 00:15:09,900 where is the money going to come to spend probably $20 billion on these technologies? 354 00:15:09,900 --> 00:15:12,100 If you know you're going to get another pipeline and you can 355 00:15:12,100 --> 00:15:14,660 increase your production of 8 million barrels a day. 356 00:15:14,660 --> 00:15:18,700 Well, now there's more revenue coming in and there's a there's a justification. 357 00:15:18,700 --> 00:15:21,499 But if you have to spend billions of dollars 358 00:15:21,499 --> 00:15:24,380 and you can't increase production, the math does not match. 359 00:15:24,380 --> 00:15:26,180 These are publicly traded companies. 360 00:15:26,180 --> 00:15:28,100 They get investment just like everyone else. 361 00:15:28,100 --> 00:15:29,659 That investment can go to Nvidia, 362 00:15:29,659 --> 00:15:32,139 it can go to meta, it can go to Volkswagen, 363 00:15:32,139 --> 00:15:33,700 it can go to any other company. 364 00:15:33,700 --> 00:15:35,420 And so they have to have that return. 365 00:15:35,420 --> 00:15:38,279 And if all your profits have to be driven into carbon capture, 366 00:15:38,279 --> 00:15:40,220 you're just not going to get any investment. 367 00:15:40,220 --> 00:15:41,940 So what's the stumbling block. Just the amount 368 00:15:41,940 --> 00:15:43,980 of federal dollars that are going to be put in. 369 00:15:43,980 --> 00:15:46,379 Yes, yes. And so I think that's where 370 00:15:46,379 --> 00:15:49,399 the negotiations are trying to figure out how much does industry pay, 371 00:15:49,399 --> 00:15:50,619 how much does the province pay, 372 00:15:50,619 --> 00:15:52,060 how much do the feds pay. 373 00:15:52,060 --> 00:15:54,500 And from industry's perspective, I think they want to be, 374 00:15:54,500 --> 00:15:57,440 you know, good, good players, responsible players. 375 00:15:57,440 --> 00:15:58,860 But all of this is cost. 376 00:15:58,860 --> 00:16:00,580 None of this is profit. 377 00:16:00,580 --> 00:16:01,880 And again, like I say, 378 00:16:01,880 --> 00:16:04,800 they still have to have a certain level of return for the investors or 379 00:16:04,800 --> 00:16:08,780 the investors will just take off and you won't have any money to put into carbon capture. 380 00:16:08,780 --> 00:16:10,560 The money has to come from somewhere. 381 00:16:10,560 --> 00:16:13,860 And so figure out what is that magic formula 382 00:16:13,860 --> 00:16:17,820 of dividing where the Canadian oil sands sector can be competitive. 383 00:16:17,820 --> 00:16:18,939 Meanwhile, by the way, 384 00:16:18,939 --> 00:16:20,520 paying royalties, paying taxes, 385 00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:22,659 having the best paying jobs in the country, 386 00:16:22,659 --> 00:16:26,260 increasing our exports, that supports our dollar. 387 00:16:26,260 --> 00:16:30,020 So there's a lot of benefit to having them grow and being competitive. 388 00:16:30,020 --> 00:16:32,840 And so, you know who's who's who should pay. 389 00:16:32,840 --> 00:16:36,400 Is it a public good. Is it a private good. All that kind of thing. 390 00:16:36,400 --> 00:16:40,000 Moving east, you've been particularly 391 00:16:40,000 --> 00:16:44,080 skeptical about Arctic ports being commercially viable. 392 00:16:44,080 --> 00:16:45,840 You noted that the feds and the province have 393 00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:49,119 spent more than half $1 billion on the Port of Churchill, 394 00:16:49,119 --> 00:16:51,690 and it's still not attracting shippers that invest 395 00:16:51,690 --> 00:16:54,890 or are investment in the Northwest Territories. 396 00:16:54,890 --> 00:16:56,069 They're trying to make up for 397 00:16:56,069 --> 00:16:59,850 a diamond mining industry that's nearing the end of its lifespan. 398 00:16:59,850 --> 00:17:02,529 It's proposing this Arctic security corridor, 399 00:17:02,529 --> 00:17:03,670 which is a road from, 400 00:17:03,670 --> 00:17:06,249 I guess the road from Alberta to Yellowknife exists, 401 00:17:06,249 --> 00:17:08,929 but then Yellowknife to the Arctic Ocean, 402 00:17:08,929 --> 00:17:11,470 terminating at Grays Bay in Nunavut. 403 00:17:11,470 --> 00:17:15,010 Um, the problem with both of these is that the shipping season is pretty short. 404 00:17:15,010 --> 00:17:18,410 Um, global warming has increased it marginally, 405 00:17:18,410 --> 00:17:24,089 but not significantly, and has also shortened the seasons for, 406 00:17:24,089 --> 00:17:25,970 uh, for ice roads. 407 00:17:25,970 --> 00:17:29,569 So is all this just a pipe dream on 408 00:17:29,569 --> 00:17:33,410 the part of premiers who are looking for economic activity? 409 00:17:33,410 --> 00:17:37,410 Yes. So? So I hate to be in this position because I'm, you know, 410 00:17:37,410 --> 00:17:40,969 I if I would describe myself like I'm 411 00:17:40,969 --> 00:17:44,990 indigenous and northern and rural development is the thing I care about the most. 412 00:17:44,990 --> 00:17:48,610 Now I'm in a position to say why northern development is a bad idea. 413 00:17:48,610 --> 00:17:51,430 It's a terrible idea for oil. Terrible idea. 414 00:17:51,430 --> 00:17:55,249 And it's a very bad idea for liquefied natural gas for the reasons you mentioned, 415 00:17:55,249 --> 00:17:56,690 is we're talking about a three. 416 00:17:56,690 --> 00:17:57,910 You know, in a perfect world, 417 00:17:57,910 --> 00:17:59,470 four month shipping season, 418 00:17:59,470 --> 00:18:03,690 you're just never you will never get a return on your investment to build that pipeline 419 00:18:03,690 --> 00:18:09,210 east to a seasonal port where there's much more environmental complexity, 420 00:18:09,210 --> 00:18:10,930 where, again, you can just go west. 421 00:18:10,930 --> 00:18:12,470 You know, it's shorter, it's easier, it's faster. 422 00:18:12,470 --> 00:18:13,630 You're going to the Asian market, 423 00:18:13,630 --> 00:18:15,390 which is the world's biggest energy market, 424 00:18:15,390 --> 00:18:18,050 fastest growing now, now. 425 00:18:18,050 --> 00:18:19,690 But we do want northern development. 426 00:18:19,690 --> 00:18:23,070 We do want those regions to prosper at a local level. 427 00:18:23,070 --> 00:18:24,950 I don't think that this is going to turn, 428 00:18:24,950 --> 00:18:27,530 you know, this is not the thing that's going to grow our GDP. 429 00:18:27,530 --> 00:18:31,850 This is not the thing that's going to help Canada diversify its exports away. 430 00:18:31,850 --> 00:18:35,229 But a port in Churchill and a port in Grays Bay can be useful 431 00:18:35,229 --> 00:18:38,750 for helping local mining development happen. 432 00:18:38,750 --> 00:18:41,470 Um, and that's important for jobs, for taxes, 433 00:18:41,470 --> 00:18:42,949 for royalties for those communities, 434 00:18:42,949 --> 00:18:44,710 economic health, the port of Churchill. 435 00:18:44,710 --> 00:18:46,750 You also need just for resupply. 436 00:18:46,750 --> 00:18:47,930 Uh, so there's, you know, 437 00:18:47,930 --> 00:18:51,109 there's a reason it's a public good to provide some basic infrastructure, 438 00:18:51,109 --> 00:18:53,970 basic transportation, access for the people that live there. 439 00:18:53,970 --> 00:18:57,490 And critical minerals is very different thing from oil where you can mine. 440 00:18:57,490 --> 00:19:01,369 And we see this with with private led sectors in Mary River in, 441 00:19:01,369 --> 00:19:06,870 in in Nunavut with Raglan nickel mine in northern Quebec with Boycie's Bay and Labrador. 442 00:19:06,870 --> 00:19:10,450 You can mine you can produce all year and stockpile it. 443 00:19:10,450 --> 00:19:12,930 And then in that short shipping season you can ship it out. 444 00:19:12,930 --> 00:19:15,289 And it's not very expensive just to just to have it 445 00:19:15,289 --> 00:19:18,170 sitting there while the shipping season is closed. 446 00:19:18,170 --> 00:19:21,090 So so energy corridor. That makes no sense. 447 00:19:21,090 --> 00:19:22,629 Even when they say port to port, 448 00:19:22,629 --> 00:19:24,489 like there's nothing you're shipping from, 449 00:19:24,489 --> 00:19:26,250 from Burnaby to Churchill. 450 00:19:26,250 --> 00:19:28,970 Nothing. Um, but anyways. 451 00:19:28,970 --> 00:19:32,829 But anyways, yeah, I think from a from a northern development perspective, 452 00:19:32,829 --> 00:19:36,370 but not a, not an export diversification perspective. 453 00:19:36,370 --> 00:19:38,690 Moving east again to Ontario. 454 00:19:38,690 --> 00:19:41,630 Doug Ford's priority is the Ring of fire. 455 00:19:41,630 --> 00:19:44,730 Um, that was a gleam in the Premier's eye when I was at Queen's Park, 456 00:19:44,730 --> 00:19:46,350 and that was more than 20 years ago. 457 00:19:46,350 --> 00:19:49,115 It doesn't seem to have progressed much since then, 458 00:19:49,115 --> 00:19:50,599 And if I remember rightly, 459 00:19:50,599 --> 00:19:54,480 it was a low commodity price at the time that really stymied development. 460 00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:58,580 You think prices are at a sufficient level to justify the investment now? 461 00:19:58,580 --> 00:20:01,580 So there's so many things to unpack with Ring of Fire. 462 00:20:01,580 --> 00:20:04,640 And in one way, I hate like it's a worst case scenario. 463 00:20:04,640 --> 00:20:06,299 Not every mining project, 464 00:20:06,299 --> 00:20:08,720 not every development is like that in Canada. 465 00:20:08,720 --> 00:20:10,600 And and not everyone has, you know, 466 00:20:10,600 --> 00:20:14,059 the the adversarial nature with local indigenous nations, 467 00:20:14,059 --> 00:20:15,440 with the provincial government. 468 00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:16,940 It doesn't have to be that way. 469 00:20:16,940 --> 00:20:18,860 It's unfortunate. Ring of fire. 470 00:20:18,860 --> 00:20:20,300 The real impetus, I think, 471 00:20:20,300 --> 00:20:21,960 for Ring of Fire was that, you know, 472 00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:27,299 we were so focused on the EV supply chain and that supply chain security, 473 00:20:27,299 --> 00:20:29,459 that why, you know, if you're going to build the EVs 474 00:20:29,459 --> 00:20:32,040 and that's your future for your auto manufacturing, 475 00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:35,820 don't be importing that stuff from China when you have it in your own backyard. 476 00:20:35,820 --> 00:20:40,980 So I think really about having that total independence for that supply chain, um, 477 00:20:40,980 --> 00:20:46,340 for EVs and whether the commodity price is justifying that is, 478 00:20:46,340 --> 00:20:47,720 of course, a different question. 479 00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:50,080 Right now, Ring of Fire is a road project. 480 00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:52,679 You know, it's what we're trying to get built as a road, 481 00:20:52,679 --> 00:20:55,280 and that would unleash some mining later. 482 00:20:55,280 --> 00:20:58,399 But for but I have to say this for the mining sector, 483 00:20:58,399 --> 00:21:01,300 this is an inherently cyclical, uh, commodity. 484 00:21:01,300 --> 00:21:03,320 You know, all these all these are cyclical, 485 00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:05,600 and the timing matters a great deal. 486 00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:08,540 And that, yes, the prices may not be there today, 487 00:21:08,540 --> 00:21:12,480 but they need to be able to strike when the iron is hot. 488 00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:13,619 And so, you know, 489 00:21:13,619 --> 00:21:17,440 have the regulations in place to see a line of sight to be able to attract investors. 490 00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:19,759 So the when the price starts to go up to a certain point, 491 00:21:19,759 --> 00:21:21,960 you say ours is the next best project. 492 00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:23,800 Ours is the one that should get built. 493 00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:29,439 So let's help those guys be prepared for when the commodity price is ready. 494 00:21:29,481 --> 00:21:33,160 The other thing that Doug Ford mentioned was was nuclear. 495 00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:34,839 And in Ontario, 496 00:21:34,839 --> 00:21:40,820 Ontario power generation is now put a price tag on its small nuclear reactors. 497 00:21:40,820 --> 00:21:45,920 Um, is this the future for nuclear or is it for power generation, 498 00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:50,640 or is this still such an Such early stage that we don't really know how it's going to go. 499 00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:54,320 This is the one area where I'll just go full socialist, you know, 500 00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:56,019 where I just think like, yes, 501 00:21:56,019 --> 00:21:57,940 this is a nation building project. 502 00:21:57,940 --> 00:21:59,400 We should lead on smears. 503 00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:01,600 And there's so many strategic reasons we can do it. 504 00:22:01,600 --> 00:22:03,700 One is that we have the uranium source. 505 00:22:03,700 --> 00:22:05,359 You know, the world's number two exporter, 506 00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:06,700 number two, producer of uranium. 507 00:22:06,700 --> 00:22:10,380 We have just phenomenal deposit in northern Saskatchewan. 508 00:22:10,380 --> 00:22:12,080 There's a twin basin in Nunavut. 509 00:22:12,080 --> 00:22:14,840 You know, for 100 years from now when we start to run out of that. 510 00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:16,439 Uh, and so, you know, 511 00:22:16,439 --> 00:22:20,780 we could dominate the supply chain and the technology and energy is big business. 512 00:22:20,780 --> 00:22:22,359 And we are building the first, 513 00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:24,059 as you know, Stephen Lecce will say, 514 00:22:24,059 --> 00:22:27,300 the first G7 and the first smart in the G7. 515 00:22:27,300 --> 00:22:30,060 It has taken some public money to get there. 516 00:22:30,060 --> 00:22:31,639 Uh, but there is, you know, 517 00:22:31,639 --> 00:22:34,759 there is a line of sight where being the first mover really does 518 00:22:34,759 --> 00:22:38,080 accord you some benefits as you try to sell these models in the future, 519 00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:40,900 there will only be so much room for so many models. 520 00:22:40,900 --> 00:22:44,300 Uh, and so getting in at the ground floor is very helpful. 521 00:22:44,300 --> 00:22:46,180 Um, and so it does take money, 522 00:22:46,180 --> 00:22:47,610 but I do think it's the future. 523 00:22:47,610 --> 00:22:49,420 It's like I'm not a huge, you know, 524 00:22:49,420 --> 00:22:51,219 go ahead and do wind and solar, 525 00:22:51,219 --> 00:22:52,880 but there's a limited use case. 526 00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:55,100 There's only so much wind and solar that you can do. 527 00:22:55,100 --> 00:22:56,520 Even in hydro in Canada, 528 00:22:56,520 --> 00:22:58,200 we have tremendous hydro. 529 00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:00,739 We're we've neared the end of, 530 00:23:00,739 --> 00:23:06,540 of of really big mega mega projects for hydro that are economically competitive. 531 00:23:06,540 --> 00:23:09,860 And we've seen the last few where boondoggles in 532 00:23:09,860 --> 00:23:13,400 their own right in Manitoba and BC and in Newfoundland. 533 00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:14,900 And so where, you know, 534 00:23:14,900 --> 00:23:16,060 where can we go next? 535 00:23:16,060 --> 00:23:20,460 Nuclear really has the potential if you get the cost curve down smears. 536 00:23:20,460 --> 00:23:23,420 The whole purpose of an SMR is to get the cost curve down. 537 00:23:23,420 --> 00:23:26,000 To start doing this in a modular fashion, 538 00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:27,560 in a factory fashion. 539 00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:30,839 Um, and again, it's baseload clean energy that has actually 540 00:23:30,839 --> 00:23:34,120 very little land and very little material inputs. 541 00:23:34,120 --> 00:23:37,500 And so in 100 years do I think we'll be doing mostly nuclear? 542 00:23:37,500 --> 00:23:38,900 Yes, I honestly do. 543 00:23:38,900 --> 00:23:43,240 And the potential for the North with Microreactors is so phenomenal. Also. 544 00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:47,410 Just to finish off moving east again into the Maritimes. 545 00:23:47,410 --> 00:23:49,670 Um, you mentioned wind power. 546 00:23:49,670 --> 00:23:51,650 Nova Scotia's big project is West Wind, 547 00:23:51,650 --> 00:23:57,130 which is a wind energy cable linked to linked going west, I guess. 548 00:23:57,130 --> 00:23:59,850 Um, so how feasible is that? 549 00:23:59,850 --> 00:24:02,670 And and energy East. Is that dead? 550 00:24:02,670 --> 00:24:11,270 So on wind again you know you know it's wind is not looking good globally right now. 551 00:24:11,270 --> 00:24:13,970 It has you know has not been attracting investment. 552 00:24:13,970 --> 00:24:16,570 It has been very expensive in the UK. 553 00:24:16,570 --> 00:24:18,849 Um, and so you know, 554 00:24:18,849 --> 00:24:20,170 show me the math. 555 00:24:20,170 --> 00:24:23,450 But if it's just a project that just requires federal funding, 556 00:24:23,450 --> 00:24:24,750 then I would say, you know, 557 00:24:24,750 --> 00:24:26,210 we should look at other projects. 558 00:24:26,210 --> 00:24:29,369 And then if we get to green hydrogen and the idea of 559 00:24:29,369 --> 00:24:32,650 shipping green ammonia across Europe at a competitive rate, 560 00:24:32,650 --> 00:24:34,010 I just don't see it. 561 00:24:34,010 --> 00:24:37,330 Um, and I think we spent a lot of money already, 562 00:24:37,330 --> 00:24:40,349 you know, and hardly any private sector money has, has, 563 00:24:40,349 --> 00:24:43,669 has been attracted in and these, you know, 564 00:24:43,669 --> 00:24:47,690 this this isn't the I don't think this is the future for Atlantic Canada. 565 00:24:47,690 --> 00:24:50,070 I don't think it'll make it a prosperous region. 566 00:24:50,070 --> 00:24:53,770 But of course, they have tremendous oil and gas reserves. And I have to say it. 567 00:24:53,770 --> 00:24:55,869 And actually, the, um, you know, 568 00:24:55,869 --> 00:24:58,910 Eastern Energy Conference is happening in Saint John's right now. 569 00:24:58,910 --> 00:25:01,410 Um, and so if we do want to get so, 570 00:25:01,410 --> 00:25:04,090 which is why which brings it back to Energy East, 571 00:25:04,090 --> 00:25:06,829 very expensive and very difficult to build 572 00:25:06,829 --> 00:25:10,250 a pipeline from Alberta all the way to the east. 573 00:25:10,250 --> 00:25:13,850 Uh, when you have oil and gas out there already. 574 00:25:13,850 --> 00:25:15,010 And so, you know, 575 00:25:15,010 --> 00:25:17,610 we do want Atlantic Canada to proceed, 576 00:25:17,610 --> 00:25:19,410 to succeed, to prosper. 577 00:25:19,410 --> 00:25:23,250 There's nothing like oil and gas revenues that helps provincial governments, 578 00:25:23,250 --> 00:25:25,150 uh, you know, budget. 579 00:25:25,150 --> 00:25:29,670 And so let's I would say let's focus on developing Atlantic Canada's oil and gas. 580 00:25:29,670 --> 00:25:32,570 If we want to provide our allies in Europe with energy security. 581 00:25:32,570 --> 00:25:34,569 If we want to have more of our own energy security, 582 00:25:34,569 --> 00:25:36,910 get off Saudi American, uh, imports, 583 00:25:36,910 --> 00:25:39,550 for example, to the Saint John refinery. 584 00:25:39,550 --> 00:25:42,410 So let's develop what we have all across the country. 585 00:25:42,410 --> 00:25:43,770 Let's serve Asian markets. 586 00:25:43,770 --> 00:25:45,550 Let's serve European markets. 587 00:25:45,550 --> 00:25:47,230 But we don't need to just have a, you know, 588 00:25:47,230 --> 00:25:49,970 a small pie of olive oil going across the whole country. 589 00:25:49,970 --> 00:25:54,330 I mean, Newfoundland put out some good news on its Jeanne d'Arc, 590 00:25:54,330 --> 00:25:57,730 uh, natural gas reserves. Right. Its basin? 591 00:25:57,730 --> 00:25:59,130 Yes. And that was, you know, I guess, 592 00:25:59,130 --> 00:26:01,990 the big announcement coming out of this conference so that, 593 00:26:01,990 --> 00:26:05,050 you know, they have you do have to do the work and the government has been supporting it. 594 00:26:05,050 --> 00:26:08,590 The provincial government and I support that of doing some feasibility. 595 00:26:08,590 --> 00:26:10,069 So you can kind of direct, you know, 596 00:26:10,069 --> 00:26:12,330 proponents of where to go, what's looking good, 597 00:26:12,330 --> 00:26:13,710 what is what is, you know, 598 00:26:13,710 --> 00:26:17,230 the size of the potential product. 599 00:26:17,230 --> 00:26:19,210 And that's gas. 600 00:26:19,210 --> 00:26:21,010 Uh, even more competitive on oil. 601 00:26:21,010 --> 00:26:22,450 And it is a nice light oil. 602 00:26:22,450 --> 00:26:25,230 It is closer to what we refine is closer to what 603 00:26:25,230 --> 00:26:28,449 Norway produces and Norway oil and gas production, 604 00:26:28,449 --> 00:26:30,650 it's offshore is probably peaking this year. 605 00:26:30,650 --> 00:26:32,890 And so they will need some replacement uh, 606 00:26:32,890 --> 00:26:35,290 for Norwegian kind of quality of crudes. 607 00:26:35,290 --> 00:26:36,810 And I think that can come from Newfoundland, 608 00:26:36,810 --> 00:26:38,010 which is why Equinor, 609 00:26:38,010 --> 00:26:40,849 the Norwegian owned oil and gas company, 610 00:26:40,849 --> 00:26:42,189 is investing in Newfoundland, 611 00:26:42,189 --> 00:26:43,530 was there in Saint John's. 612 00:26:43,530 --> 00:26:47,710 And the big project that they have their eyes on for the next project is Bay du Nord, 613 00:26:47,710 --> 00:26:50,350 and that would be an oil project, right? 614 00:26:50,350 --> 00:26:52,350 Just to wrap all of this up, 615 00:26:52,350 --> 00:26:54,369 I mean, at the end of the day, 616 00:26:54,369 --> 00:26:58,789 85% of Canadians voted for parties that are advocating 617 00:26:58,789 --> 00:27:03,170 resource corridors and speedy development of nation building projects. 618 00:27:03,170 --> 00:27:04,910 I mean, the premiers know this, 619 00:27:04,910 --> 00:27:08,970 which is presumably why they're they've all become singing, 620 00:27:08,970 --> 00:27:10,910 holding hands and singing Kumbaya. 621 00:27:10,910 --> 00:27:14,530 Um, do you think this is a a good. 622 00:27:14,530 --> 00:27:17,670 I mean, it's clearly a good omen, but do you think it's. 623 00:27:18,270 --> 00:27:22,229 Decisive enough moment that we could actually break 624 00:27:22,229 --> 00:27:25,710 through the logjams and actually get things done this time? 625 00:27:25,710 --> 00:27:27,930 I mean, God help us if we don't. 626 00:27:27,930 --> 00:27:32,310 If we return to our complacency after what we've seen and what we've gone through. 627 00:27:32,310 --> 00:27:34,110 Uh, you know that God help this country. 628 00:27:34,110 --> 00:27:36,450 But the conversation right now, again, 629 00:27:36,450 --> 00:27:38,609 is focusing on a few projects and even, 630 00:27:38,609 --> 00:27:40,530 you know, offer us governments, 631 00:27:40,530 --> 00:27:41,789 offer us your projects, 632 00:27:41,789 --> 00:27:46,180 and then governments will decide which projects Objects and and you know, 633 00:27:46,180 --> 00:27:48,560 I'll, I'll be tolerant of this. 634 00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:52,000 Like I say, maybe for a handful of projects and for a handful of months. 635 00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:55,919 But if we don't improve our regulatory systems and we 636 00:27:55,919 --> 00:28:00,520 all like it's no one's being coy about what the problems are with our regulatory systems, 637 00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:02,320 especially at the federal level. 638 00:28:02,320 --> 00:28:03,860 We know what we want to see. 639 00:28:03,860 --> 00:28:05,440 That is where we need to see movement. 640 00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:06,500 That is where, you know, 641 00:28:06,500 --> 00:28:08,680 the the the rubber will hit the road. 642 00:28:08,680 --> 00:28:10,740 Um, and so, you know, 643 00:28:10,740 --> 00:28:13,800 I, we just can't keep going down this path though, John. 644 00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:15,440 You can't just not build things. 645 00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:18,940 You can't bring in new people at the rate we bring in new people. 646 00:28:18,940 --> 00:28:22,820 Um, and you can't be dependent on China at the rate that we're dependent on China, 647 00:28:22,820 --> 00:28:24,839 at the rate the United States is dependent on China, 648 00:28:24,839 --> 00:28:26,600 that cannot keep going on. 649 00:28:26,600 --> 00:28:29,099 And we could do it in a good way now, 650 00:28:29,099 --> 00:28:32,100 or we can do it in a very hard way later, I think. 651 00:28:32,100 --> 00:28:36,540 Well, listen, thank you very much for your time and your expertise. Be well. 652 00:28:36,540 --> 00:28:38,600 Thanks, John.