WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.900 During the covid-19 prices you probably heard one term over 00:00:03.900 --> 00:00:06.400 and over again herd immunity. 00:00:06.400 --> 00:00:10.400 It happens when most of the population becomes immune to an infectious disease 00:00:10.400 --> 00:00:14.300 decreases nail salon, a population and the opportunities 00:00:14.300 --> 00:00:18.700 for the virus to transmit and thus survive we did it with measles 00:00:18.700 --> 00:00:22.300 and mumps and now we're figuring out how to get there with the 00:00:22.300 --> 00:00:26.000 novel coronavirus but one country is getting a lot of press 00:00:26.000 --> 00:00:36.600 for aiming to get to herd immunity Faster by organizing 00:00:36.600 --> 00:00:40.100 herd immunity and some people are asking why isn't the US following 00:00:40.100 --> 00:00:43.300 suit there are two main ways of getting to herd immunity 00:00:43.300 --> 00:00:47.700 your widespread vaccination or some natural infection and Recovery 00:00:47.700 --> 00:00:51.000 herd immunity requires at least sixty to seventy percent 00:00:51.000 --> 00:00:52.700 of people to achieve immunity. 00:00:52.700 --> 00:00:57.900 The assemblies a 90% rate is needed to herd immunity will help 00:00:57.900 --> 00:00:59.600 protect those without immunity. 00:01:00.000 --> 00:01:03.000 An infected person would mostly come in contact with immune 00:01:03.000 --> 00:01:06.800 people stopping more infections do us implemented lockdowns 00:01:06.800 --> 00:01:10.300 to slow the spread while waiting for a vaccine the problem 00:01:10.300 --> 00:01:13.200 with this method is That vaccine development takes a long time 00:01:13.200 --> 00:01:14.800 to be clear. 00:01:14.800 --> 00:01:24.900 18 months is the short end of the vaccine timeline would be a miracle, 00:01:24.900 --> 00:01:28.600 I believe because that would require every single test if this 00:01:28.600 --> 00:01:35.100 vaccine to go well and have no safety problems and sufficient 00:01:35.100 --> 00:01:38.300 immunity. Would that first vaccine that we test? I 00:01:38.300 --> 00:01:41.400 think that's very unlikely covid-19 virus. 00:01:41.400 --> 00:01:48.800 So scientists have had to jump start but even with the groundwork 00:01:48.800 --> 00:01:51.300 research done and fast-tracking of any trials, 00:01:51.300 --> 00:01:55.100 it takes time and exposure to judge whether a vaccine is safe 00:01:55.100 --> 00:01:58.600 and effective in the meantime countries are forced to lock down 00:01:58.600 --> 00:01:59.600 and physical distance. 00:01:59.900 --> 00:02:02.700 In order to slow the spread and avoid overwhelming the Healthcare 00:02:02.700 --> 00:02:07.800 systems, but the problems are twofold first physical distancing 00:02:07.800 --> 00:02:11.000 isn't as effective as experts would like in part because 00:02:11.000 --> 00:02:14.200 people have to be the numbers of cases are still going up. 00:02:14.200 --> 00:02:18.200 That's not a recipe that says, oh we can relax and go back to 00:02:18.200 --> 00:02:26.500 work unemployment 15% with millions of Americans out of a job 00:02:26.500 --> 00:02:30.800 protest this part demanding the country be open and even still 00:02:30.800 --> 00:02:33.700 certain parts of the country's hospitals are filled mostly 00:02:33.700 --> 00:02:37.200 with covid-19 patients despite attempts to slow its spread. 00:02:38.300 --> 00:02:41.000 Summit Point into Sweden's example of what should have been 00:02:41.000 --> 00:02:45.000 done which is the second path of herd immunity natural infection 00:02:45.000 --> 00:02:48.600 and Recovery Windows shutting down schools for young children 00:02:48.600 --> 00:02:51.900 or children's care facility and we have no regulation 00:02:51.900 --> 00:02:54.600 that forces citizens to remain in their homes. 00:02:54.600 --> 00:02:58.300 Sweden didn't use mandatory lockdowns the Swedish government 00:02:58.300 --> 00:03:01.800 did close some schools and limited Gatherings to less than 50 00:03:01.800 --> 00:03:04.500 bars restaurants in Jim's remain open. 00:03:04.500 --> 00:03:06.700 The physical distancing is encouraged. 00:03:06.700 --> 00:03:10.200 The goal is to allow life to continue as normally as possible. 00:03:10.200 --> 00:03:13.200 There's no enforcement of social distancing by the police 00:03:13.200 --> 00:03:16.000 and state-mandated closures have been minimal. 00:03:18.900 --> 00:03:22.700 Play a correlation between the lockdown measures taken in countries 00:03:22.700 --> 00:03:30.300 and their effect on on the April but now countries that use restrictions 00:03:30.300 --> 00:03:34.600 like South Korea and Germany are seeing spikes and cases critics 00:03:34.600 --> 00:03:37.300 argue Sweden's trying to achieve herd immunity through a natural 00:03:37.300 --> 00:03:39.200 path at the expense of its citizens. 00:03:39.200 --> 00:03:42.500 And there was Health Ministry says that is not official 00:03:42.500 --> 00:03:46.600 policy. It's also saying that it's working according to Sweden's 00:03:46.600 --> 00:03:49.400 Health Ministry over a quarter of Stockholm's residents 00:03:49.400 --> 00:03:50.900 show antibodies for covid-19. 00:03:50.900 --> 00:03:55.700 The ministry predicts herd immunity is 60% by mid-may. 00:03:56.700 --> 00:03:59.700 However, this method could overwhelm the Healthcare System 00:03:59.700 --> 00:04:03.500 leading to many deaths depending on how deadly diseases 00:04:03.500 --> 00:04:07.700 and the numbers in Sweden paint a grim picture a significant 00:04:07.700 --> 00:04:10.700 portion of the countries that have been in its nursing homes 00:04:10.700 --> 00:04:14.900 a fact that the government admitted was a failure and it strategy 00:04:14.900 --> 00:04:19.600 and the death rate in Sweden is almost 32 deaths per 100,000 00:04:19.600 --> 00:04:22.500 people and number significantly higher than its neighbors 00:04:22.500 --> 00:04:26.000 and the US even though it's lower than other European countries 00:04:26.000 --> 00:04:29.300 like Spain and Italy Sweden's course could help us economy 00:04:29.300 --> 00:04:32.000 recover quicker though like the rest of the world. 00:04:32.000 --> 00:04:33.200 It's still suffering. 00:04:39.300 --> 00:04:39.900 Good night. 00:04:42.800 --> 00:04:46.000 natural immunity also requires infection and Recovery 00:04:47.000 --> 00:04:49.600 the first certain number it will be no recovery. 00:04:50.500 --> 00:04:54.800 Reach the low end 60% of Americans are almost 200 million 00:04:54.800 --> 00:04:58.300 people would have to be inspected recover and gain immunity. 00:04:58.300 --> 00:05:03.400 But this means 1% or nearly two million people would die this 00:05:03.400 --> 00:05:16.700 using a 1% mortality rate covid-19 guaranteed immunity from 00:05:16.700 --> 00:05:17.100 the virus. 00:05:18.300 --> 00:05:20.900 When a person recovers from a disease their body usually 00:05:20.900 --> 00:05:23.600 build a natural immunity to fight future infection, 00:05:23.600 --> 00:05:26.700 but immunity from natural infection has several different 00:05:26.700 --> 00:05:30.500 factors, including the amount of antibodies produced whether 00:05:30.500 --> 00:05:33.000 those antibodies can defend against a future infection 00:05:33.000 --> 00:05:35.800 and if so, how long will they provide immunity for? 00:05:35.800 --> 00:05:39.700 Currently? There are no studies proving any of these with covid-19. 00:05:39.700 --> 00:05:43.500 We can look to other outbreaks in the coronavirus family and 00:05:43.500 --> 00:05:44.700 develop educated guesses. 00:05:44.700 --> 00:05:48.400 But until then they are still at best just educated guesses. 00:05:50.500 --> 00:05:54.100 When dealing with a pandemic the Pats to herd immunity or not 00:05:54.100 --> 00:05:58.400 clean both of us pass and the Swedish path are numbers game 00:05:58.400 --> 00:06:02.100 one could lead to more deaths while the other could have astronomical 00:06:02.100 --> 00:06:04.900 economic impacts and there is no one-size-fits-all 00:06:04.900 --> 00:06:09.900 path even comparing US cities doesn't quite work New York City 00:06:09.900 --> 00:06:14.400 is the global hotspot La often compared to New York suffered 00:06:14.400 --> 00:06:15.600 relatively few debts. 00:06:15.600 --> 00:06:19.600 But La is a city that sprawls spreading is population 00:06:19.600 --> 00:06:23.500 out. Where is New York is dense causing less room for physical 00:06:23.500 --> 00:06:27.400 distancing doctor pouchy said a second wave is inevitable 00:06:27.400 --> 00:06:29.700 and its parts of the country reopen. 00:06:29.700 --> 00:06:33.100 The question is what can change to flatten that second curve. 00:06:33.100 --> 00:06:36.800 The best we can do is learn from our past mistakes for when 00:06:36.800 --> 00:06:37.000 it comes 00:06:38.100 --> 00:06:41.900 Take Sweden while it's deaths per 100,000 is higher than its 00:06:41.900 --> 00:06:45.900 neighbors more than 87% of those deaths are over the age of 70 00:06:45.900 --> 00:06:48.300 a group known to be especially vulnerable. 00:06:48.300 --> 00:06:52.000 If a second wave come sweetened used to better protect that 00:06:52.000 --> 00:06:56.200 population and in America the unknowns will have to be known 00:06:56.200 --> 00:07:01.300 who has it and recovered are they immune now for how long can 00:07:01.300 --> 00:07:04.300 those who recovered from covid-19 go back to work while the unprotected 00:07:04.300 --> 00:07:08.500 stay isolated during the first wave more than 80,000 people 00:07:08.500 --> 00:07:12.500 died in the US as of May 11th Americans can find a way to 00:07:12.500 --> 00:07:16.300 do better because what's at stake are the people around us?