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- President Trump and
former New York City Mayor

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Michael Bloomberg each paid $11 million

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for 60 seconds of ad
time during the big game.

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It's the first time candidates have bought

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Super Bowl ad time
across the whole country.

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But are the ads worth the money?

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How effective are they

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and how do you even begin to measure that?

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In total, the 2020 cycle
is expected to rack up

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$6 billion in ad spending.

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Bloomberg has thrown more
dollars at TV screens

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across the nation than
any other candidate.

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By mid-January, he'd spent $245 million.

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He also hasn't been on a debate stage,

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but he's climbing up
in the national polls.

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So, he really must value the power of ads.

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For some experts, political
ads are an exact science

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and can be measured for
their ability to influence.

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- I'm a kind of running dog of empiricism,

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I'm sort of the science-minded
guy who asks questions

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about the effectiveness of TV ads,

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and so many of my studies look at

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what are effectively randomized trials.

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- Green embedded with Rick Perry's

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2006 campaign for governor.

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Yes, that Rick Perry.

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- Oops.

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- And measured how Perry's
ads boosted poll numbers

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around Texas based on variables
like volume and start time.

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He says these studies are effective

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but rarely done by ad agencies,
because, well, money talks.

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What if these tests showed

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that they should decrease spending?

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- It's an extremely lucrative business,

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they're able to draw a huge commission

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from the ads that they
deploy, which is why,

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regardless of their politics,

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they're especially exuberant
when working for a billionaire

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who is a free-spending TV-minded person.

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- The Wesleyan Media Center
takes a different approach

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to scientific ad testing.

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- We track, analyze, and study the flow

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of political advertising on
television and now online.

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- Franz's team scores every political ad

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based on different features,

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which helps people study their success.

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They count the frequency
of certain hot topic words

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and they look out for things

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like uplifting or ominous music,

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humor, sadness, and flags.

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- It's very hard to know
with any degree of confidence

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if a particular type of
ad is more or less likely

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to help you win an election.

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- What his studies do show

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is that the quantity of ads is important.

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Makes sense, the more ads, the better.

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But the quality is harder to gauge.

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Maybe that's why some see ads as an art,

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rather than a science.

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So, we went to the creators.

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We asked an ad maker,

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who worked on the Obama
and Clinton campaigns,

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what he thinks makes a good ad.

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- How do we overcome the
well-earned skepticism

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people have about politics

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and whether it's really
gonna benefit them,

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and two, how can I make them
feel connected to this person?

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They're not just brand,
they're not just a politician,

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not just gonna be president or whatever,

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this is a person.

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And how do I make something
that feels real and authentic?

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- So, the candidate's voice
and narrative are important.

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Every candidate shapes
his or her own brand.

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Whether that's taking
a biographical approach

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that inspires working people
to relate to their story,

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or doing damage control

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by targeting a specific
coalition of voters,

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or creating a vision of
nostalgia and patriotism,

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and painting yourself as the one

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who can uphold American values.

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Style is also important.

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It can be effective to sensationalize

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by distorting sounds and images.

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- [Narrator] The Democrats
want to impeach him,

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and their media lapdogs fall in line.

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- The good old fashion negative ad.

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These are more common in
politics than in corporate ads,

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because people have more of an emotional,

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visceral reaction to leaders.

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They're either your friend or the enemy.

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- It's not as though Coke
and Pepsi hate each other.

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I mean, they're competing
with one another,

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but it's not as though Coke says of Pepsi,

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Pepsi is aligned with the forces of evil,

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whereas that is essentially

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what the warring parties are saying.

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- On the national stage,
at the Super Bowl,

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it makes sense for the
candidates, even Trump,

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to play it a lot safer.

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After all, they want to appeal

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to independents and undecideds.

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- Would be well-served for him

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to put TV ads that were positive,

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and reminded viewers of the good economy,

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of trade deals, of all
sorts of other things

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that generally have gone well for him.

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- [Talib] And that's
exactly what he's done.

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- [Narrator] Under President
Trump, America is stronger,

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safer, and more prosperous
than ever before.

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- Tests have shown that the
popularity bump from ads

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only lasts a short while.

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Maybe campaigns aren't
really targeting voters.

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Maybe they're targeting people like me.

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- So much of the advertising
is targeted at journalists.

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They're often deployed in places

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where journalists can be found.

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- So, essentially,
they're spending millions

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to be talked about.

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It all seems extravagant

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but it's simply always been like this.

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- There is a great irony,

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which is that here mass media

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is incredibly expensive.

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Vast resources are spent on it.

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And we live in an era

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of increasingly sophisticated big data.

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All the tools necessary

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for gauging advertising effects are there.

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- There's no doubt that the
makers of the ads themselves

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will have a whole bunch
of conventional wisdom,

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common sense sort of arguments

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that a particular type of
ad is the key to success.

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It's hard to know if that is true

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beyond the sort of perceptions
of those ad makers.

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- But change may soon be coming,

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maybe even in the next decade.

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And once again, we have
the young people to thank.

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- I think it's a generational change.

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I think what will happen
eventually is that

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people who are somewhat younger

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will have second thoughts

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about dumping hundreds
of millions of dollars

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into TV in the last days of a campaign.

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And they'll think about other ways

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to deploy their resources.

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- I'm Talib Visram, and
I approve this message