1 00:00:02,080 --> 00:00:06,200 Carbons emissions are rising—and faster than most scientists predicted. 2 00:00:06,200 --> 00:00:12,260 But many climate-change alarmists seem to claim that all climate change is worse than expected. 3 00:00:12,260 --> 00:00:17,680 This ignores that much of the data is actually more encouraging than expected. 4 00:00:17,680 --> 00:00:21,560 Yes, Arctic sea ice is melting faster than the models expected. 5 00:00:21,560 --> 00:00:28,820 But models also predicted that Antarctic sea ice would decrease, yet Antarctic Sea ice is increasing. 6 00:00:28,820 --> 00:00:34,100 Yes, sea levels are rising, but the rise is not accelerating—if anything, two recent 7 00:00:34,100 --> 00:00:40,000 papers, one by Chinese scientists published in January 2014, and the other by U.S. scientists 8 00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:46,220 published in May 2013, have shown a small decline in the rate of sea-level increase. 9 00:00:46,220 --> 00:00:50,160 We are often being told that we’re seeing more and more droughts, but a study published 10 00:00:50,170 --> 00:00:55,560 in March 2014 in the journal Nature actually shows a decrease in the world’s surface 11 00:00:55,560 --> 00:00:59,660 that has been afflicted by droughts since 1982. 12 00:00:59,660 --> 00:01:06,060 Facts like these are important because a one-side focus on worst-case stories is a poor foundation 13 00:01:06,070 --> 00:01:07,850 for sound policies. 14 00:01:07,850 --> 00:01:12,010 Hurricanes are likewise used as an example of things getting worse. 15 00:01:12,010 --> 00:01:17,300 But look at the U.S., where we have the best statistics: if we adjust for population and wealth, 16 00:01:17,300 --> 00:01:24,140 hurricane damage during the period of 1900-2013 actually decreased slightly. 17 00:01:24,140 --> 00:01:29,980 At the UN climate conference in Lima, Peru in December 2014 attendees were told that 18 00:01:29,990 --> 00:01:35,000 their countries should cut carbon emissions to avoid future damage from storms like Typhoon 19 00:01:35,000 --> 00:01:39,649 Hagupit, which hit the Philippines during the conference, killing at least 21 people 20 00:01:39,649 --> 00:01:41,869 and forcing more than a million into shelters. 21 00:01:41,869 --> 00:01:47,569 Yet the trend for strong typhoons around the Philippines have actually declined since 1950, 22 00:01:47,580 --> 00:01:51,620 according to a study published in 2012 by the Journal of Climate. 23 00:01:51,620 --> 00:01:57,200 Again, we’re told that all things are getting worse, but the facts don’t support this. 24 00:01:57,200 --> 00:02:01,800 This does not mean that global warming is not real, or a problem, but the one-sided 25 00:02:01,810 --> 00:02:05,030 story of alarmism makes us lose focus. 26 00:02:05,030 --> 00:02:09,160 If we want to help the world’s poor, who are the most threatened by natural disasters, 27 00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:14,420 it’s less about cutting carbon emissions than it is about pulling them out of poverty. 28 00:02:14,420 --> 00:02:19,480 The best way to see this is to look at the world’s deaths from natural disasters over time. 29 00:02:19,540 --> 00:02:24,280 In the Oxford University database for death rates from floods, extreme temperatures, droughts, 30 00:02:24,280 --> 00:02:30,040 and storms, the average in the first part of last century, was more than 130 dead 31 00:02:30,040 --> 00:02:32,260 every year per million people. 32 00:02:32,260 --> 00:02:40,300 Since then, the death rates have dropped 97% to a new low in the 2010s of less than 4 per million. 33 00:02:40,300 --> 00:02:45,060 The dramatic decline is mostly due to economic developments that help nations 34 00:02:45,060 --> 00:02:47,260 withstand catastrophes. 35 00:02:47,260 --> 00:02:52,180 If you’re rich like Florida, a major hurricane might cause plenty of damage to expensive 36 00:02:52,180 --> 00:02:57,700 buildings, but it kills few people and causes only a temporary dent in economic output. 37 00:02:57,700 --> 00:03:02,180 If a similar hurricane hits a poorer country like the Philippines or Guatemala, 38 00:03:02,180 --> 00:03:05,780 it kills many more people and can devastate the economy. 39 00:03:05,780 --> 00:03:07,280 So let’s be clear. 40 00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:12,319 Climate change is not “worse than we thought” That doesn’t mean it’s is not a reality 41 00:03:12,319 --> 00:03:14,759 or not a problem. It is. 42 00:03:14,760 --> 00:03:20,040 But the narrative that the world’s climate is changing from bad to worse is unhelpful 43 00:03:20,040 --> 00:03:24,540 alarmism that prevents us from focusing on smart solutions. 44 00:03:24,540 --> 00:03:28,980 A well-meaning environmentalist might argue that, because climate change is a reality, 45 00:03:28,990 --> 00:03:32,690 why not ramp up the rhetoric and focus on the bad news to make sure the public 46 00:03:32,690 --> 00:03:34,530 understands its importance? 47 00:03:34,530 --> 00:03:37,690 But that’s exactly what we’ve done for the past 20 years. 48 00:03:37,690 --> 00:03:43,240 Yet despite dramatic headlines, apocalyptic documentaries and annual climate summits, 49 00:03:43,250 --> 00:03:47,930 carbon emissions continue to rise, especially in rapidly developing countries like India, 50 00:03:47,930 --> 00:03:50,710 China and many African nations. 51 00:03:50,710 --> 00:03:56,640 Alarmism has encouraged the pursuit of a one-sided climate policy of trying to cut carbon emissions 52 00:03:56,640 --> 00:03:59,459 by subsidizing wind farms and solar panels. 53 00:03:59,459 --> 00:04:05,360 Yet today, according to the International Energy Agency, only about 0.4% of global energy 54 00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:08,680 consumption comes from solar photovoltaics and windmills. 55 00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:14,040 And even with exceptionally optimistic assumptions about future deployment of wind and solar, 56 00:04:14,060 --> 00:04:18,780 the International Energy Agency expects that these energy forms will provide a minuscule 57 00:04:18,780 --> 00:04:22,440 2.2% of the world’s energy by 2040. 58 00:04:22,440 --> 00:04:27,180 In other words, for at least the next two decades, solar and wind energy are simply 59 00:04:27,190 --> 00:04:32,410 expensive, feel-good measures that will have an imperceptible climate impact. 60 00:04:32,410 --> 00:04:38,620 Instead, we should focus on investing in research and development of green energy to lower its costs, 61 00:04:38,620 --> 00:04:42,720 so everyone will want it, including China and India. 62 00:04:42,720 --> 00:04:48,260 We urgently need a more balanced climate conversation if we are to make sensible choices and pick 63 00:04:48,270 --> 00:04:52,900 the right climate policy that can actually help fix climate change. 64 00:04:52,900 --> 00:04:57,160 I’m Bjorn Lomborg, president of the Copenhagen Consensus Center.